RRosternomics
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Padres SDP

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GM: AJ Preller

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.04× league · TAB -8.6
-8.6TAB — talent above budget25th/30
-8.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)24th/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars27th/30
-4.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag15th/30
27%dead money %6th/30
0.457win %23rd/30
26.1roster fWAR25th/30
-44surplus $M (value vs cost)24th/30
$126Mpayroll $M12th/30

Roster

CFB.J. Upton 63GWil Myers 38GTravis Jankowski 23G
LFJustin Upton 146GAlexi Amarista 11GAbraham Almonte 6G
RFMatt Kemp 149GTravis Jankowski 11GAbraham Almonte 2G
SSClint Barmes 89GAlexi Amarista 85GJedd Gyorko 29G
2BJedd Gyorko 93GCory Spangenberg 70GYangervis Solarte 19G
3BYangervis Solarte 92GWill Middlebrooks 69GCory Spangenberg 19G
1BYonder Alonso 102GYangervis Solarte 28GWil Myers 22G
STARTERSTyson Ross 4.8WARAndrew Cashner 1.5WARJames Shields 0.7WARColin Rea 0.6WARBrandon Morrow 0.4WAR
CDerek Norris 128GAustin Hedges 47GRocky Gale 6G
DHMatt Kemp 3GBrett Wallace 2GJedd Gyorko 1G
BULLPEN★ Craig Kimbrel 39svJoaquín Benoit 28hMarc Rzepczynski 16hBrandon Maurer 12hShawn Kelley 7hDale Thayer 6hKevin Quackenbush 2hFrank Garces 0h
CDerek Norris 128 · Austin Hedges 47 · Rocky Gale 6
1BYonder Alonso 102 · Yangervis Solarte 28 · Wil Myers 22
2BJedd Gyorko 93 · Cory Spangenberg 70 · Yangervis Solarte 19
3BYangervis Solarte 92 · Will Middlebrooks 69 · Cory Spangenberg 19
SSClint Barmes 89 · Alexi Amarista 85 · Jedd Gyorko 29
LFJustin Upton 146 · Alexi Amarista 11 · Abraham Almonte 6
CFB.J. Upton 63 · Wil Myers 38 · Travis Jankowski 23
RFMatt Kemp 149 · Travis Jankowski 11 · Abraham Almonte 2
DHMatt Kemp 3 · Brett Wallace 2 · Jedd Gyorko 1
SPTyson Ross 4.8 · Andrew Cashner 1.5 · James Shields 0.7 · Colin Rea 0.6 · Brandon Morrow 0.4
BP★ Craig Kimbrel 39 · Joaquín Benoit 28 · Marc Rzepczynski 16 · Brandon Maurer 12 · Shawn Kelley 7 · Dale Thayer 6 · Kevin Quackenbush 2 · Frank Garces 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2015 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Tyson Ross 28 arb 344.8 5.2 +9.7
Derek Norris 26 arb 1473.8 0.5 +11.5
Justin Upton 27 FA-elig 1503.4 14.5 -3.7
Cory Spangenberg 24 pre-arb 1082.0 0.5 +5.7
Yangervis Solarte 27 pre-arb 1521.8 0.5 +5.1
Andrew Cashner 28 arb 381.5 4.0 +0.8
B.J. Upton 30 FA-elig 871.5 14.4 -9.7
Craig Kimbrel 27 arb 611.3 9.0 -4.9
Yonder Alonso 28 arb 1031.0 1.6 +1.6
Will Venable↔ TEX 32 FA-elig 981.0 3.1 +0.1
Matt Kemp 30 FA-elig 1541.0 21.2 -18.1
Wil Myers 24 pre-arb 601.0 0.5 +2.5
Jedd Gyorko 26 pre-arb 1280.9 2.0 +1.0
Shawn Kelley 31 FA-elig 530.9 2.8 -0.1
James Shields 33 FA-elig 360.7 10.0 -7.7
Brett Wallace 28 pre-arb 640.6 0.3 +1.6
Colin Rea 24 – 70.6 0.1 +1.7
Austin Hedges 22 – 560.5 0.4 +1.2
Brandon Maurer 24 pre-arb 530.5 0.5 +1.1
Brandon Morrow 30 FA-elig 50.4 2.5 -1.4
Nick Vincent 28 arb 260.3 0.5 +0.5
Ian Kennedy 30 FA-elig 300.3 9.8 -9.0
Bud Norris↔ BAL 30 FA-elig 200.2 4.6 -3.8
Robbie Erlin 24 pre-arb 30.2 0.1 +0.7
Joaquín Benoit 37 FA-elig 670.2 8.0 -7.3
Clint Barmes 36 FA-elig 980.2 1.3 -0.8
Kevin Quackenbush 26 pre-arb 570.1 0.5 -0.0
Jay Jackson 27 – 60.1 0.1 +0.1
Leonel Campos 27 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Marc Rzepczynski↔ CLE 29 FA-elig 27-0.0 0.9 -0.9
Casey Kelly 25 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Alex Dickerson 25 – 11-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Marcos Mateo 31 pre-arb 26-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Cory Mazzoni 25 pre-arb 8-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Rocky Gale 27 – 11-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Travis Jankowski 24 – 34-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Chris Rearick 27 – 5-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Jon Edwards↔ TEX 27 pre-arb 11-0.2 0.3 -0.8
Wil Nieves 37 FA-elig 6-0.2 0.8 -1.4
Cody Decker 28 – 8-0.3 0.1 -0.9
Abraham Almonte↔ CLE 26 – 31-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Odrisamer Despaigne 28 pre-arb 34-0.4 0.5 -1.7
Dale Thayer 34 FA-elig 38-0.4 1.4 -2.6
Will Middlebrooks 26 arb 83-0.4 0.5 -1.9
Alexi Amarista 26 arb 118-0.9 1.1 -4.1
Frank Garces 25 pre-arb 40-0.9 0.5 -3.5

Key additions (new vs 2014)

PlayerfWAR
Derek Norris3.8
Justin Upton3.4
B.J. Upton1.5
Craig Kimbrel1.3
Matt Kemp1.0
Wil Myers1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2014)

Player2014 fWAR
René Rivera4.9
Yasmani Grandal2.8
Seth Smith2.7
Chase Headley1.1
Jesse Hahn0.8
Tommy Medica0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2015 payroll
$126.0M
2016 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2015, 2015–2021. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2015; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Matt Kemp308.049$21.2MFREE AGENT
Justin Upton277.060$14.5MFREE AGENT
B.J. Upton308.126$14.4MFREE AGENT
James Shields338.125$10.0MFREE AGENT
Joaquín Benoit3715.040$8.0MFREE AGENT
Brandon Morrow307.091$2.5MFREE AGENT
Dale Thayer346.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Clint Barmes369.112$1.3MFREE AGENT
Wil Nieves3713.000$850kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Ian Kennedy305.124$9.8MFREE AGENT
Craig Kimbrel274.066$9.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyson Ross283.126$5.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bud Norris305.068$4.6MFREE AGENT
Andrew Cashner284.126$4.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Venable325.155$3.1MFREE AGENT
Shawn Kelley315.128$2.8MFREE AGENT
Yonder Alonso283.116$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alexi Amarista263.053$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marc Rzepczynski294.132$900kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (27)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Jedd Gyorko262.000$2.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Norris262.102$545kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Middlebrooks262.121$540kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Vincent282.007$525kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wil Myers241.104$520kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Odrisamer Despaigne282.075$517kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yangervis Solarte271.000$516kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Spangenberg240.028$508kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Frank Garces250.040$508kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Maurer241.089$505kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Quackenbush260.157$458kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Hedges220.000$424kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Wallace282.067$300kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marcos Mateo312.025$286kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Edwards271.141$254kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colin Rea240.000$150kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Mazzoni250.093$150kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Jankowski240.000$128kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Dickerson250.000$97kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rocky Gale270.000$89kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Leonel Campos270.089$77kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Abraham Almonte260.126$59kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jay Jackson270.000$55kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Decker28–$55k
Robbie Erlin241.057$55kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Kelly252.038$55kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Rearick27–$44k

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Padres 2015; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.