SEA⇄SDP

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net +$9.6M net +2.7

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $23M expected surplus · +$9.6M realized received 1.5 ± 3 expected · 2.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2016 odds 28% → 30% (+1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Nick VincentP·29y·R/R

+$5.0M+$5.0M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$9.6M 1.5± 3 exp WARrealized 2.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.48/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.77 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP AJ Preller net −$9.6M net -2.7

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2016 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.