RRosternomics
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Padres SDP

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GM: AJ Preller

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.64× league · TAB -4.6
-4.6TAB — talent above budget19th/30
-10.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)22nd/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars25th/30
-5.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag18th/30
64%dead money %29th/30
0.407win %25th/30
24.2roster fWAR22nd/30
-1surplus $M (value vs cost)11th/30
$84Mpayroll $M27th/30

Roster

CFManuel Margot 136GTravis Jankowski 34GFranchy Cordero 11G
LFHunter Renfroe 58GTravis Jankowski 32GJosé Pirela 31G
RFFranmil Reyes 75GTravis Jankowski 58GHunter Renfroe 50G
SSFreddy Galvis 160GJavy Guerra 7GChristian Villanueva 4G
2BJosé Pirela 77GCarlos Asuaje 61GCory Spangenberg 49G
3BChristian Villanueva 96GCory Spangenberg 44GWil Myers 36G
1BEric Hosmer 157GJosé Pirela 9GChristian Villanueva 3G
STARTERSRobbie Erlin 1.8WARJoey Lucchesi 0.9WARMatt Strahm 0.8WAREric Lauer 0.7WARClayton Richard 0.7WAR
CAustin Hedges 83GA.J. Ellis 44GRaffy Lopez 30G
DHFrancisco Mejía 2GCory Spangenberg 2GHunter Renfroe 2G
BULLPEN★ Kirby Yates 12svCraig Stammen 23hJosé Castillo 12hTrey Wingenter 5hRobert Stock 4hPhil Maton 3hKazuhisa Makita 2hPhil Hughes 0h
CAustin Hedges 83 · A.J. Ellis 44 · Raffy Lopez 30
1BEric Hosmer 157 · José Pirela 9 · Christian Villanueva 3
2BJosé Pirela 77 · Carlos Asuaje 61 · Cory Spangenberg 49
3BChristian Villanueva 96 · Cory Spangenberg 44 · Wil Myers 36
SSFreddy Galvis 160 · Javy Guerra 7 · Christian Villanueva 4
LFHunter Renfroe 58 · Travis Jankowski 32 · José Pirela 31
CFManuel Margot 136 · Travis Jankowski 34 · Franchy Cordero 11
RFFranmil Reyes 75 · Travis Jankowski 58 · Hunter Renfroe 50
DHFrancisco Mejía 2 · Cory Spangenberg 2 · Hunter Renfroe 2
SPRobbie Erlin 1.8 · Joey Lucchesi 0.9 · Matt Strahm 0.8 · Eric Lauer 0.7 · Clayton Richard 0.7
BP★ Kirby Yates 12 · Craig Stammen 23 · José Castillo 12 · Trey Wingenter 5 · Robert Stock 4 · Phil Maton 3 · Kazuhisa Makita 2 · Phil Hughes 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Austin Hedges 25 arb 912.8 0.6 +8.8
Craig Stammen 34 FA-elig 732.2 2.2 +5.4
Freddy Galvis 28 FA-elig 1622.2 6.8 +0.5
Robbie Erlin 27 arb 401.8 0.7 +5.5
Kirby Yates 31 arb 651.7 1.1 +4.9
Hunter Renfroe 26 pre-arb 1171.7 0.6 +5.3
Christian Villanueva 27 pre-arb 1101.7 0.5 +5.2
Travis Jankowski 27 pre-arb 1171.5 0.5 +4.6
Wil Myers 27 arb 831.4 4.5 +0.2
Franmil Reyes 22 – 871.1 0.3 +3.4
Adam Cimber↔ CLE 27 pre-arb 421.1 0.3 +3.3
Manuel Margot 23 pre-arb 1411.0 0.6 +2.9
Joey Lucchesi 25 – 260.9 0.5 +2.7
José Castillo 22 – 370.9 0.4 +2.6
Matt Strahm 26 pre-arb 410.8 0.6 +2.2
Tyson Ross↔ STL 31 FA-elig 250.8 1.3 +1.4
Cory Spangenberg 27 arb 1160.7 1.7 +0.8
Brad Hand↔ CLE 28 FA-elig 410.7 2.4 +0.0
Eric Lauer 23 – 230.7 0.5 +1.9
Clayton Richard 34 FA-elig 280.7 3.0 -0.7
Robert Stock 28 – 320.6 0.2 +1.8
Phil Maton 25 pre-arb 450.6 0.5 +1.5
Luis Perdomo 25 pre-arb 120.5 0.6 +1.0
Franchy Cordero 23 pre-arb 400.3 0.5 +0.5
Jordan Lyles↔ MIL 27 FA-elig 260.3 0.5 +0.4
Luis Urías 21 – 120.2 0.1 +0.5
Miguel Díaz 23 pre-arb 110.2 0.4 +0.1
Brad Wieck 26 – 50.2 0.1 +0.5
José Pirela 28 arb 1460.1 0.6 -0.2
Colten Brewer 25 pre-arb 110.1 0.5 -0.2
Rowan Wick 25 – 100.1 0.1 +0.2
Trey Wingenter 24 – 22-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Eric Hosmer 28 FA-elig 157-0.0 21.0 -21.1
Buddy Baumann↔ NYM 30 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Francisco Mejía↔ CLE 22 pre-arb 20-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Kazuhisa Makita 33 pre-arb 27-0.1 1.9 -2.3
Raffy Lopez 30 arb 37-0.2 0.6 -1.2
Kyle McGrath 25 pre-arb 4-0.2 0.5 -1.2
Tyler Webb↔ STL 27 – 4-0.3 0.0 -0.9
Phil Hughes↔ MIN 32 FA-elig 16-0.3 9.2 -10.1
Javy Guerra 22 – 13-0.3 0.2 -1.2
A.J. Ellis 37 FA-elig 66-0.3 1.2 -2.2
Walker Lockett 24 – 4-0.3 0.0 -1.1
Matt Szczur 28 arb 57-0.4 0.9 -2.4
Brett Kennedy 23 – 6-0.4 0.2 -1.6
Chase Headley 34 FA-elig 27-0.4 13.0 -14.5
Jacob Nix 22 – 9-0.5 0.2 -2.0
Bryan Mitchell 27 arb 16-0.6 0.6 -2.5
Carlos Asuaje 26 pre-arb 79-0.7 0.6 -2.9

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
Freddy Galvis2.2
Robbie Erlin1.8
Franmil Reyes1.1
Adam Cimber1.1
Joey Lucchesi0.9
José Castillo0.9

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Jhoulys Chacín2.7
Trevor Cahill1.6
Yangervis Solarte1.5
Brandon Maurer0.7
Dusty Coleman0.3
Jarred Cosart0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$83.5M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Eric Hosmer286.146$21.0MFREE AGENT
Chase Headley3411.000$13.0MFREE AGENT
Phil Hughes3211.000$9.2MFREE AGENT
Clayton Richard347.163$3.0MFREE AGENT
Craig Stammen346.160$2.2MFREE AGENT
Tyson Ross316.118$1.3MFREE AGENT
A.J. Ellis377.151$1.2MFREE AGENT
Jordan Lyles276.001$527kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Freddy Galvis285.021$6.8MFREE AGENT
Wil Myers274.104$4.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Hand284.092$2.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Spangenberg273.016$1.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kirby Yates313.021$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robbie Erlin273.078$650kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Pirela283.002$556kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javy Guerra223.064$246kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (33)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Kazuhisa Makita330.000$1.9MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Szczur282.134$950kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Raffy Lopez301.026$580kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Perdomo252.000$567kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manuel Margot231.012$557kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Renfroe260.165$554kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Hedges251.166$553kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Mitchell272.049$553kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Strahm261.064$553kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Asuaje260.116$550kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Villanueva271.014$548kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle McGrath250.078$547kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Franchy Cordero230.038$546kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colten Brewer250.000$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Lucchesi250.000$513kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phil Maton250.113$487kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Lauer230.000$469kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Jankowski272.014$463kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Díaz231.000$431kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Castillo220.000$355kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Franmil Reyes220.000$340kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Cimber270.000$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Stock280.000$249kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trey Wingenter240.000$167kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Kennedy230.000$161kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Nix220.000$152kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Urías210.000$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rowan Wick250.000$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Mejía220.031$75kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Wieck260.000$59kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Walker Lockett240.000$41kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Webb270.026$26kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Buddy Baumann301.125$20kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Padres 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.