NYY⇄SDP

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$18.4M net +1.0

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $25M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2018 odds 92% → 94% (+1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jabari BlashOF·28y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#252 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.6/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

-0.05/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP AJ Preller net −$18.4M net -1.0

received +$8.8M+$8.0M ± $30M expected surplus · −$18.4M realized received 3.7 ± 4 expected · -1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2018 odds 2% → 2% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chase Headley3B·34y·B/R

+$5.0M+$4.2M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$14.4M 2.5± 2 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.5/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

1.77/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Bryan MitchellP·27y·L/R

+$3.4M+$3.4M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

#495 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.30/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.