SDP⇄BAL

SDPSDP AJ Preller net +$1.6M net +1.5

received +$11.2M+$8.8M ± $16M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 3.0 ± 2 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2025 odds 23% → 28% (+5.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ramón LaureanoOF·30y·R/R

+$7.9M+$5.2M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 2.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.15/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Ryan O'Hearn1B·31y·L/L

+$3.3M+$3.3M± $9M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.76/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Mike Elias net −$1.6M net -1.5

received +$13.6M+$13.6M ± $55M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 7.8 ± 7 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2025 odds 3% → 2% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Victor Figueroa1B·21y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#540 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Tyson NeighborsP·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#118 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Cobb HightowerSS·20y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#88 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Boston BatemanP·19y·R/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#52 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Tanner SmithP·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#450 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Brandon ButterworthSS·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#360 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.