OAK⇄SDP

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$0.8M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $5M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2020 odds 51% → 53% (+2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Junior Perez

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP AJ Preller net −$0.8M net +0.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2020 odds 99% → 98% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jorge MateoSS·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

Composite #68.0 prospect (Baseball America #64 (2018) / MLB Pipeline #72 (2018)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.