CLE⇄SDP

CLECLE Chris Antonetti net −$3.2M net +0.3

received +$4.8M+$1.6M ± $14M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2024 odds 19% → 20% (+1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott BarlowP·31y·R/R

+$4.4M+$1.9M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.83/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP AJ Preller net +$3.2M net -0.3

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $23M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.4 ± 3 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2024 odds 76% → 74% (-1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Enyel De Los SantosP·28y·R/R

+$4.9M+$4.9M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.4± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.46/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.