CLE⇄SDP

CLECLE Chris Antonetti net +$6.4M net +1.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $25M expected surplus · +$6.4M realized received 1.1 ± 3 expected · 1.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2019 odds 70% → 70% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Phil MatonP·26y·R/R

+$2.0M+$2.0M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 1.3

Prior

#597 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.22/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP AJ Preller net −$6.4M net -1.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2019 odds 3% → 3% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.