CLE⇄SDP

CLECLE Chris Antonetti net +$1.6M net +0.3

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $28M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 2.6 ± 4 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2024 odds 19% → 20% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Pedro AvilaP·27y·R/R

+$9.4M+$9.4M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 2.6± 4 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.52/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.90 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP AJ Preller net −$1.6M net -0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2024 odds 75% → 74% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.