CLE⇄SDP

CLECLE Chris Antonetti net +$84.0M net +17.0

received +$38.4M+$38.4M ± $68M expected surplus · +$96.0M realized received 12.0 ± 8 expected · 19.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2020 odds 89% → 83% (-6.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cal QuantrillP·25y·L/R

+$25.2M+$25.2M± $46M exp surplusrealized +$32.0M 3.8± 6 exp WARrealized 4.9

Prior

#8 overall draft pick → 0.25/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.69/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Austin HedgesC·27y·R/R

+$11.3M+$11.3M± $29M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 4.4± 4 exp WARrealized 2.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.48/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Owen Miller1B/2B·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#84 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Joey CantilloP·20y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$29.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 3.8

Prior

#468 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Gabriel AriasSS·20y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Josh Naylor1B·23y·L/L

−$3.4M−$3.4M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$35.2M 0.2± 3 exp WARrealized 7.0

Prior

#12 overall draft pick → 0.30/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.04/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP AJ Preller net −$84.0M net -17.0

received +$121.6M+$121.6M ± $43M expected surplus · +$12.0M realized received 11.0 ± 5 expected · 2.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2020 odds 97% → 98% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike ClevingerP·29y·R/R

+$111.2M+$111.2M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 7.9± 4 exp WARrealized 1.1

Prior

#135 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.3/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

2.69/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Greg AllenOF·27y·B/R

+$9.0M+$9.0M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.9± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.40/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Matt WaldronP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 1.6

Prior

#550 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.