Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 1 | 1.1 | PIT | Bryan Bullington | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 210 | — | — | Ed Creech | Dave Littlefield | -0.2 | -19.8 | 19.6±3.8 |
| 2002 | 2 | 1.2 | TBR | B.J. Upton | OF CF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 185 | — | — | Dan Jennings | Chuck Lamar | 24.1 | +9.8 | 14.3±4.2 |
| 2002 | 3 | 1.3 | CIN | Christopher Gruler | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 200 | — | — | Kasey McKeon | Jim Bowden | 0.0 | -9.9 | 9.9±4.1 |
| 2002 | 4 | 1.4 | BAL | Adam Loewen | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'6" | 245 | — | — | Tony Demacio | Syd Thrift | 1.1 | -8.8 | 9.9±4.1 |
| 2002 | 5 | 1.5 | WSN | Clint Everts | P P | 18 HS | S/R | 6'2" | 195 | — | — | Dana Brown | Larry Beinfest | 0.0 | -9.9 | 9.9±3.9 |
| 2002 | 6 | 1.6 | KCR | Zack Greinke | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 200 | — | — | Deric Ladnier | Allard Baird | 56.2 | +46.3 | 9.9±3.8 |
| 2002 | 7 | 1.7 | MIL | Prince Fielder | IF 1B | 18 HS | L/R | 5'11" | 275 | — | — | Jack Zduriencik | Dean Taylor | 27.4 | +8.5 | 18.9±3.9 |
| 2002 | 8 | 1.8 | DET | Scott Moore | IF 3B | 19 HS | L/R | 6'2" | 195 | — | — | — | Randy Smith | 0.1 | -14.2 | 14.3±3.9 |
| 2002 | 9 | 1.9 | COL | Jeff Francis | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'5" | 220 | — | — | Bill Schmidt | Daniel O'Dowd | 15.4 | +7.5 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2002 | 10 | 1.10 | TEX | Drew Meyer | IF 2B | 21 COLL | L/R | 5'10" | 205 | — | — | Grady Fuson | John Hart | -0.2 | -15.0 | 14.8±3.8 |
| 2002 | 11 | 1.11 | MIA | Jeremy Hermida | OF RF | 18 HS | L/R | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | Stan Meek | Dave Dombrowski | 1.9 | -6.1 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2002 | 12 | 1.12 | ANA | Joe Saunders | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | Donny Rowland | Bill Stoneman | 8.5 | +0.6 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2002 | 13 | 1.13 | SDP | Khalil Greene | IF SS | 23 COLL | R/R | 5'11" | 185 | — | — | Bill Gayton | Kevin Towers | 8.0 | -2.8 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2002 | 14 | 1.14 | TOR | Russ Adams | IF SS | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'0" | 205 | — | — | Chris Buckley | JP Ricciardi | -0.7 | -11.5 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2002 | 15 | 1.15 | NYM | Scott Kazmir | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'0" | 185 | — | — | Jack Bowen | Steve Phillips | 25.0 | +19.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2002 | 16 | 1.16 | OAK | Nick Swisher | OF RF | 22 COLL | S/L | 6'0" | 195 | — | — | Eric Kubota | Billy Beane | 25.0 | +20.6 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2002 | 17 | 1.17 | PHI | Cole Hamels | P P | 19 HS | L/L | 6'4" | 205 | — | — | Marti Wolever | Ed Wade | 48.1 | +42.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2002 | 18 | 1.18 | CHW | Royce Ring | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'0" | 220 | — | — | Doug Laumann | Kenny Williams | -0.1 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2002 | 19 | 1.19 | LAD | James Loney | IF 1B | 18 HS | L/L | 6'3" | 235 | — | — | Logan White | Dan Evans | 7.1 | +4.4 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2002 | 20 | 1.20 | MIN | Denard Span | OF CF | 18 HS | L/L | 6'0" | 210 | — | — | Mike Radcliff | Terry Ryan | 24.9 | +17.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2002 | 21 | 1.21 | CHC | Bobby Brownlie | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 225 | — | — | John Stockstill | Andy MacPhail | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2002 | 22 | 1.22 | CLE | Jeremy Guthrie | P P | 23 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 205 | — | — | John Mirabelli | Mark Shapiro | 11.3 | +5.9 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2002 | 23 | 1.23 | ATL | Jeff Francoeur | OF RF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 225 | — | — | Roy Clark | John Schuerholz | 5.5 | -2.5 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2002 | 24 | 1.24 | OAK | Joe Blanton | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 225 | — | — | Eric Kubota | Billy Beane | 20.1 | +14.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2002 | 25 | 1.25 | SFG | Matt Cain | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 230 | — | — | Dick Tidrow | Brian Sabean | 27.7 | +22.2 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2002 | 26 | 1.26 | OAK | John McCurdy | IF SS | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 200 | — | — | Eric Kubota | Billy Beane | 0.0 | -3.8 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2002 | 27 | 1.27 | ARI | Sergio Santos | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 215 | — | — | Mike Rizzo | Joe Garagiola | 2.3 | -0.4 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2002 | 28 | 1.28 | SEA | ✕ John Mayberry Jr. | OF CF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'6" | 235 | — | — | Frank Mattox | Pat Gillick | 0.0 | -2.4 | 2.4±3.7 |
| 2002 | 29 | 1.29 | HOU | Derick Grigsby | P P | 20 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 205 | — | — | David Lakey | Gerry Hunsicker | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2002 | 30 | 1.30 | OAK | Ben Fritz | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 240 | — | — | Eric Kubota | Billy Beane | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2002 | 31 | 1.31 | LAD | Greg Miller | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'6" | 215 | — | — | Logan White | Dan Evans | 0.0 | -2.7 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2002 | 32 | 1.32 | CHC | Luke Hagerty | P P | 21 COLL | R/L | 6'7" | 230 | — | — | John Stockstill | Andy MacPhail | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2002 | 33 | 1.33 | CLE | Matthew Whitney | IF 1B | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | John Mirabelli | Mark Shapiro | 0.0 | -2.8 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2002 | 34 | 1.34 | ATL | Dan Meyer | P P | 21 COLL | R/L | 6'2" | 225 | — | — | Roy Clark | John Schuerholz | -0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2002 | 35 | 1.35 | OAK | Jeremy Brown | C C | 23 COLL | R/R | 5'10" | 220 | — | — | Eric Kubota | Billy Beane | 0.0 | -2.0 | 2.0±3.8 |
| 2002 | 36 | 1.36 | CHC | Chadd Blasko | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'6" | 215 | — | — | John Stockstill | Andy MacPhail | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2002 | 37 | 1.37 | OAK | Stephen Obenchain | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 220 | — | — | Eric Kubota | Billy Beane | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2002 | 38 | 1.38 | CHC | Matthew Clanton | P P | 21 COLL | S/R | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | John Stockstill | Andy MacPhail | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2002 | 39 | 1.39 | OAK | Mark Teahen | IF 3B | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'3" | 230 | — | — | Eric Kubota | Billy Beane | 2.3 | -1.6 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2002 | 40 | 1.40 | CIN | Mark Schramek | IF 3B | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'3" | 230 | — | — | Kasey McKeon | Jim Bowden | 0.0 | -3.8 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2002 | 41 | 1.41 | CLE | Micah Schilling | IF 2B | 20 COLL | L/R | 5'11" | 185 | — | — | John Mirabelli | Mark Shapiro | 0.0 | -3.8 | 3.8±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.