RRosternomics
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Marlins MIA

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GM: Dave Dombrowski

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.65× league · TAB +2.7
+2.7TAB — talent above budget15th/30
+2.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)13th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars15th/30
-4.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag15th/30
31%dead money %16th/30
0.488win %16th/30
31.6roster fWAR16th/30
+13surplus $M (value vs cost)3rd/30
$43Mpayroll $M24th/30

Roster

CFPreston Wilson 138GJuan Encarnacion 71GEric Owens 22G
LFKevin Millar 89GEric Owens 75GTim Raines Sr. 14G
RFJuan Encarnacion 92GEric Owens 39GKevin Millar 22G
SSAndy Fox 112GÁlex González 42GMike Mordecai 27G
2BLuis Castillo 144GHomer Bush 34GPablo Ozuna 10G
3BMike Lowell 159GMike Mordecai 35GAndy Fox 4G
1BDerrek Lee 162GMike Mordecai 4GKevin Millar 2G
STARTERSA.J. Burnett 4.8WARJosh Beckett 1.6WARCarl Pavano 1.1WARBrad Penny 1.0WARJulian Tavarez 0.9WAR
CCharles Johnson 82GMike Redmond 80GRamon Castro 37G
DHKevin Millar 6GRamon Castro 1GTim Raines Sr. 1G
BULLPEN★ Vladimir Nunez 20svBraden Looper 15hArmando Almanza 12hGraeme Lloyd 11hGary Knotts 5hVic Darensbourg 3hOswaldo Mairena 3hBlaine Neal 2h
CCharles Johnson 82 · Mike Redmond 80 · Ramon Castro 37
1BDerrek Lee 162 · Mike Mordecai 4 · Kevin Millar 2
2BLuis Castillo 144 · Homer Bush 34 · Pablo Ozuna 10
3BMike Lowell 159 · Mike Mordecai 35 · Andy Fox 4
SSAndy Fox 112 · Álex González 42 · Mike Mordecai 27
LFKevin Millar 89 · Eric Owens 75 · Tim Raines Sr. 14
CFPreston Wilson 138 · Juan Encarnacion 71 · Eric Owens 22
RFJuan Encarnacion 92 · Eric Owens 39 · Kevin Millar 22
DHKevin Millar 6 · Ramon Castro 1 · Tim Raines Sr. 1
SPA.J. Burnett 4.8 · Josh Beckett 1.6 · Carl Pavano 1.1 · Brad Penny 1.0 · Julian Tavarez 0.9
BP★ Vladimir Nunez 20 · Braden Looper 15 · Armando Almanza 12 · Graeme Lloyd 11 · Gary Knotts 5 · Vic Darensbourg 3 · Oswaldo Mairena 3 · Blaine Neal 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2002 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
A.J. Burnett 25 arb 314.8 0.4 +7.9
Derrek Lee 26 arb 1623.5 2.7 +3.3
Cliff Floyd↔ BOS 29 FA-elig 843.1 3.7 +1.6
Mike Lowell 28 arb 1602.7 2.3 +2.3
Luis Castillo 26 FA-elig 1462.5 3.3 +0.9
Mike Redmond 31 arb 892.0 0.7 +2.8
Preston Wilson 27 arb 1411.9 3.5 -0.3
Josh Beckett 22 pre-arb 231.6 2.2 +0.5
Kevin Millar 30 arb 1261.4 0.9 +1.5
Eric Owens 31 FA-elig 1311.2 2.2 -0.1
Carl Pavano↔ WSN 26 arb 221.1 0.8 +1.0
Brad Penny 24 pre-arb 241.0 0.4 +1.4
Vladimir Nunez 27 arb 771.0 0.4 +1.3
Andy Fox 31 FA-elig 1330.9 0.7 +0.8
Julian Tavarez 29 FA-elig 290.9 3.1 -1.6
Ryan Dempster↔ CIN 25 arb 180.9 1.3 +0.2
Michael Tejera 25 arb 490.8 0.2 +1.1
Mike Mordecai↔ WSN 34 FA-elig 380.6 0.2 +0.8
Juan Encarnacion↔ CIN 26 arb 690.5 0.7 +0.2
Ramon Castro 26 arb 540.5 0.2 +0.6
Álex González 25 arb 420.5 1.7 -0.9
Braden Looper 27 arb 780.5 0.8 -0.0
Blaine Neal 24 – 320.5 – –
Charles Johnson 30 FA-elig 830.4 5.0 -4.3
Kevin Olsen 25 pre-arb 170.3 0.2 +0.4
Graeme Lloyd↔ WSN 35 FA-elig 250.2 1.1 -0.7
Brian Banks 31 – 200.2 – –
Nate Teut 26 – 20.1 – –
Pablo Ozuna 27 pre-arb 340.1 0.2 -0.1
Armando Almanza 29 arb 510.0 0.3 -0.3
Justin Wayne 23 – 5-0.0 – –
Hansel Izquierdo 25 – 20-0.3 – –
Toby Borland 33 – 15-0.3 – –
Abraham M. Nunez 25 – 19-0.3 – –
Oswaldo Mairena 28 – 31-0.3 – –
Tim Raines Sr. 42 FA-elig 98-0.3 0.3 -0.9
Nate Robertson 24 – 6-0.4 – –
Marty Malloy 30 arb 24-0.4 0.2 -0.9
Homer Bush↔ TOR 29 arb 40-0.4 2.1 -2.9
Gary Knotts 25 pre-arb 28-0.6 0.2 -1.3
Vic Darensbourg 31 arb 43-0.7 0.8 -2.0

Key additions (new vs 2001)

PlayerfWAR
Carl Pavano1.1
Julian Tavarez0.9
Michael Tejera0.8
Mike Mordecai0.6
Juan Encarnacion0.5
Graeme Lloyd0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2001)

Player2001 fWAR
Matt Clement1.6
Chuck Smith1.1
Jesus Sanchez0.5
Antonio Alfonseca0.5
Juan Acevedo0.1
Jeff Abbott0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2002 payroll
$42.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2002, 2002–2008. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2002200320042005200620072008
Charles Johnson308.000$5.0MFREE AGENT
Cliff Floyd299.000$3.7MFREE AGENT
Luis Castillo266.000$3.3M$4.8M$4.7M$5.2MFREE AGENT
Julian Tavarez299.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Eric Owens317.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Graeme Lloyd359.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Andy Fox316.000$700k$800kFREE AGENT
Tim Raines Sr.4223.000$350kFREE AGENT
Mike Mordecai348.000$204k$500k$425kFREE AGENT
Brian Banks316.000—$300kFREE AGENT
Toby Borland338.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2002200320042005200620072008
Preston Wilson274.000$3.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Derrek Lee265.000$2.7MFREE AGENT
Mike Lowell284.000$2.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Homer Bush295.000$2.1MFREE AGENT
Álex González254.000$1.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Dempster254.000$1.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Millar304.000$900kARB 3FREE AGENT
Braden Looper274.000$800kARB 3FREE AGENT
Carl Pavano264.000$780kARB 3FREE AGENT
Vic Darensbourg314.000$775kARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Encarnacion265.000$704kFREE AGENT
Mike Redmond314.000$650kARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Burnett253.000$368kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vladimir Nunez274.000$360kARB 3FREE AGENT
Armando Almanza293.000$346kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramon Castro263.000$216kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marty Malloy304.000$210kARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Tejera253.000$201kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2002200320042005200620072008
Josh Beckett221.000$2.2MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Penny242.000$378kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pablo Ozuna272.000$202kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gary Knotts251.000$200kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Olsen251.000$200kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oswaldo Mairena28–—
Blaine Neal241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Abraham M. Nunez250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Teut26–—
Justin Wayne230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hansel Izquierdo25–—
Nate Robertson240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Marlins 2002; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.