RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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GM: Jim Bowden

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.73× league · TAB -2.4
-2.4TAB — talent above budget18th/30
+0.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)17th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars19th/30
-4.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag16th/30
60%dead money %28th/30
0.481win %17th/30
27.9roster fWAR21st/30
-10surplus $M (value vs cost)14th/30
$48Mpayroll $M21st/30

Roster

CFReggie Taylor 68GKen Griffey Jr. 54GAustin Kearns 6G
LFAdam Dunn 112GRussell Branyan 67GReggie Taylor 34G
RFAustin Kearns 95GJose Guillen 60GRuben Mateo 23G
SSBarry Larkin 135GJuan Castro 25GGookie Dawkins 21G
2BTodd Walker 154GJuan Castro 17GGookie Dawkins 3G
3BAaron Boone 154GRussell Branyan 24GBrandon Larson 5G
1BSean Casey 108GAdam Dunn 44GRussell Branyan 18G
STARTERSJimmy Haynes 2.1WARElmer Dessens 1.8WARJoey Hamilton 1.8WARChris Reitsma 1.0WARJared Fernandez 0.6WAR
CJason LaRue 110GCorky Miller 38GKelly Stinnett 30G
DHRussell Branyan 5GSean Casey 1GAdam Dunn 1G
BULLPEN★ Danny Graves 32svGabe White 19hScott Sullivan 17hScott Williamson 8hJohn Riedling 8hLuis Pineda 4hJose Silva 0hCarlos Almánzar 0h
CJason LaRue 110 · Corky Miller 38 · Kelly Stinnett 30
1BSean Casey 108 · Adam Dunn 44 · Russell Branyan 18
2BTodd Walker 154 · Juan Castro 17 · Gookie Dawkins 3
3BAaron Boone 154 · Russell Branyan 24 · Brandon Larson 5
SSBarry Larkin 135 · Juan Castro 25 · Gookie Dawkins 21
LFAdam Dunn 112 · Russell Branyan 67 · Reggie Taylor 34
CFReggie Taylor 68 · Ken Griffey Jr. 54 · Austin Kearns 6
RFAustin Kearns 95 · Jose Guillen 60 · Ruben Mateo 23
DHRussell Branyan 5 · Sean Casey 1 · Adam Dunn 1
SPJimmy Haynes 2.1 · Elmer Dessens 1.8 · Joey Hamilton 1.8 · Chris Reitsma 1.0 · Jared Fernandez 0.6
BP★ Danny Graves 32 · Gabe White 19 · Scott Sullivan 17 · Scott Williamson 8 · John Riedling 8 · Luis Pineda 4 · Jose Silva 0 · Carlos Almánzar 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2002 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Austin Kearns 22 – 1075.0 – –
Adam Dunn 22 pre-arb 1584.1 0.2 +6.9
Aaron Boone 29 arb 1622.8 2.1 +2.7
Todd Walker 29 FA-elig 1552.2 2.0 +1.8
Jimmy Haynes 29 FA-elig 362.1 0.5 +3.1
Joey Hamilton 31 FA-elig 391.8 0.5 +2.5
Elmer Dessens 31 FA-elig 311.8 1.8 +1.2
Scott Williamson 26 arb 631.4 0.4 +2.0
Jason LaRue 28 arb 1131.4 0.3 +2.1
Gabe White 30 FA-elig 621.3 2.5 -0.2
Danny Graves 28 FA-elig 691.2 3.5 -1.5
Juan Encarnacion↔ MIA 26 arb 831.1 0.8 +1.0
Chris Reitsma 24 pre-arb 321.0 0.3 +1.5
Russell Branyan↔ CLE 26 arb 840.7 0.2 +1.1
Corky Miller 26 – 390.6 – –
Jared Fernandez 30 – 140.6 – –
Sean Casey 27 arb 1200.5 4.0 -3.1
Ryan Dempster↔ MIA 25 arb 170.4 1.2 -0.5
Reggie Taylor 25 pre-arb 1350.4 0.2 +0.4
Jim Brower↔ WSN 29 arb 220.4 0.1 +0.5
Brandon Larson 26 – 230.3 – –
Kelly Stinnett 32 FA-elig 340.3 1.0 -0.5
Ken Griffey Jr. 32 FA-elig 700.2 8.6 -8.2
Shawn Estes↔ NYM 29 FA-elig 60.1 1.2 -1.0
John Riedling 26 pre-arb 330.1 0.2 -0.0
Carlos Almánzar 28 – 90.1 – –
Jose Rijo 37 FA-elig 310.1 0.5 -0.4
Juan Castro 30 FA-elig 54-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Wily Mo Peña 20 – 13-0.0 – –
Raul Gonzalez↔ NYM 28 – 10-0.0 – –
Luke Hudson 25 – 3-0.1 – –
Barry Larkin 38 FA-elig 145-0.1 9.0 -9.2
Bruce Chen↔ NYM 25 arb 39-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Brian Moehler↔ DET 30 FA-elig 10-0.2 1.8 -2.1
Scott Sullivan 31 FA-elig 71-0.2 2.2 -2.5
Ruben Mateo 24 – 46-0.2 – –
Luis Pineda 27 pre-arb 26-0.2 0.2 -0.6
Jose Silva 28 FA-elig 12-0.3 0.7 -1.1
Wilton Guerrero↔ WSN 27 FA-elig 59-0.4 0.5 -1.2
Jose Acevedo 24 pre-arb 6-0.4 0.2 -1.0
Jose Guillen↔ ARI 26 arb 31-0.4 0.2 -0.9
Gookie Dawkins 23 – 31-0.6 – –
Brady Clark↔ NYM 29 pre-arb 51-0.9 0.2 -1.7

Key additions (new vs 2001)

PlayerfWAR
Austin Kearns5.0
Jimmy Haynes2.1
Gabe White1.3
Juan Encarnacion1.1
Russell Branyan0.7
Ryan Dempster0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2001)

Player2001 fWAR
Dmitri Young1.3
Lance Davis1.2
Ruben Rivera1.0
Alex Ochoa0.9
Osvaldo Fernandez0.5
Dennys Reyes0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2002 payroll
$47.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2002, 2002–2008. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2002200320042005200620072008
Barry Larkin3816.000$9.0M$9.0M$700kFREE AGENT
Ken Griffey Jr.3213.000$8.6M$12.5M$12.5M$12.5M$10.5M$8.4M$5.9M
Danny Graves286.000$3.5M$5.0M$6.0M$3.1MFREE AGENT
Gabe White308.000$2.5M$2.5M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Scott Sullivan317.000$2.2M$2.2MFREE AGENT
Todd Walker296.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Brian Moehler306.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Elmer Dessens316.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Shawn Estes297.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Kelly Stinnett328.000$1.0M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Jose Silva286.000$650kFREE AGENT
Joey Hamilton318.000$500kFREE AGENT
Jimmy Haynes297.000$500k$2.5M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Jose Rijo3718.000$500kFREE AGENT
Wilton Guerrero276.000$487kFREE AGENT
Juan Castro307.000$400k$800k$1.0MFREE AGENT$519k$925k$863k

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2002200320042005200620072008
Sean Casey275.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Aaron Boone295.000$2.1MFREE AGENT
Ryan Dempster254.000$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Encarnacion265.000$846kFREE AGENT
Scott Williamson263.000$400kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason LaRue283.000$305kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bruce Chen254.000$213kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Guillen265.000$182kFREE AGENT
Russell Branyan264.000$157kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Brower293.000$106kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Almánzar285.000—FREE AGENT
Ruben Mateo243.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2002200320042005200620072008
Chris Reitsma241.000$252kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Dunn221.000$250kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Riedling262.000$240kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Acevedo241.000$233kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Pineda271.000$208kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reggie Taylor252.000$200kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brady Clark292.000$195kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jared Fernandez301.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gookie Dawkins23–—
Brandon Larson261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wily Mo Peña200.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Raul Gonzalez28–—
Corky Miller261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Hudson250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Kearns220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2002; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.