RRosternomics
𝕏

Nationals WSN

‹ ›

GM: Larry Beinfest

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.63× league · TAB +1.2
+1.2TAB — talent above budget16th/30
+7.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)10th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars19th/30
-6.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag21st/30
42%dead money %24th/30
0.512win %13th/30
29.8roster fWAR19th/30
+5surplus $M (value vs cost)8th/30
$42Mpayroll $M26th/30

Roster

CFBrad Wilkerson 73GJose Macias 58GEndy Chavez 35G
LFBrad Wilkerson 72GTroy O'Leary 69GWil Cordero 28G
RFVladimir Guerrero 161GWil Cordero 5GBrad Wilkerson 3G
SSOrlando Cabrera 153GJose Macias 4GJamey Carroll 3G
2BJose Vidro 152GJose Macias 23GWilton Guerrero 17G
3BFernando Tatis 99GJose Macias 30GJamey Carroll 13G
1BAndres Galarraga 89GBrad Wilkerson 23GWil Cordero 11G
STARTERSJavier Vazquez 4.6WARTomo Ohka 3.2WARBartolo Colon 2.1WARMasato Yoshii 1.4WARTony Armas 1.0WAR
CMichael Barrett 110GBrian Schneider 65G
DHFernando Tatis 4GTroy O'Leary 3GWil Cordero 2G
BULLPEN★ Scott Stewart 17svT.J. Tucker 15hJoey Eischen 10hMatt Herges 9hJim Brower 6hZach Day 2hDan Smith 1hTim Drew 1h
CMichael Barrett 110 · Brian Schneider 65
1BAndres Galarraga 89 · Brad Wilkerson 23 · Wil Cordero 11
2BJose Vidro 152 · Jose Macias 23 · Wilton Guerrero 17
3BFernando Tatis 99 · Jose Macias 30 · Jamey Carroll 13
SSOrlando Cabrera 153 · Jose Macias 4 · Jamey Carroll 3
LFBrad Wilkerson 72 · Troy O'Leary 69 · Wil Cordero 28
CFBrad Wilkerson 73 · Jose Macias 58 · Endy Chavez 35
RFVladimir Guerrero 161 · Wil Cordero 5 · Brad Wilkerson 3
DHFernando Tatis 4 · Troy O'Leary 3 · Wil Cordero 2
SPJavier Vazquez 4.6 · Tomo Ohka 3.2 · Bartolo Colon 2.1 · Masato Yoshii 1.4 · Tony Armas 1.0
BP★ Scott Stewart 17 · T.J. Tucker 15 · Joey Eischen 10 · Matt Herges 9 · Jim Brower 6 · Zach Day 2 · Dan Smith 1 · Tim Drew 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2002 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Vladimir Guerrero 27 FA-elig 1617.1 8.0 +4.3
Javier Vazquez 25 arb 344.6 4.7 +3.2
Jose Vidro 27 arb 1524.3 4.0 +3.5
Tomo Ohka 26 arb 323.2 0.2 +5.2
Bartolo Colon↔ CLE 29 arb 172.1 2.5 +1.0
Brad Wilkerson 25 pre-arb 1531.8 0.2 +3.0
Orlando Cabrera 27 arb 1531.7 2.4 +0.5
Scott Stewart 26 pre-arb 671.5 0.2 +2.3
Masato Yoshii 37 arb 311.4 0.3 +2.0
Joey Eischen 32 – 591.4 – –
Brian Schneider 25 pre-arb 731.3 0.2 +1.9
Michael Barrett 25 arb 1171.2 1.1 +0.9
Tony Armas 24 arb 291.0 0.3 +1.3
Sun-Woo Kim↔ BOS 24 – 40.5 – –
Britt Reames 28 pre-arb 420.5 0.2 +0.6
Tim Drew 23 – 70.5 – –
Jose Macias↔ DET 30 arb 900.4 0.3 +0.5
Endy Chavez 24 – 360.4 – –
T.J. Tucker 23 pre-arb 580.4 0.2 +0.4
Zach Day 24 – 190.2 – –
Troy O'Leary 32 – 970.2 – –
Jamey Carroll 28 – 160.2 – –
Wil Cordero↔ CLE 30 FA-elig 660.1 3.8 -3.6
Bruce Chen↔ CIN 25 arb 150.1 0.1 +0.0
Scott Strickland↔ NYM 26 arb 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Chris Truby↔ DET 28 pre-arb 35-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Carl Pavano↔ MIA 26 arb 15-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Ed Vosberg 40 FA-elig 4-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Dan Smith 26 – 33-0.1 – –
Matt Herges 32 arb 62-0.2 0.4 -0.7
Lou Collier 28 arb 13-0.2 0.2 -0.6
Jim Brower↔ CIN 29 arb 30-0.2 0.1 -0.5
Peter Bergeron 24 arb 31-0.2 0.2 -0.7
Matt Cepicky 24 – 32-0.3 – –
Graeme Lloyd↔ MIA 35 FA-elig 41-0.3 1.9 -2.4
Henry Mateo 25 – 22-0.3 – –
Henry Rodriguez 34 FA-elig 20-0.3 0.3 -0.9
Wilton Guerrero↔ CIN 27 FA-elig 44-0.5 0.4 -1.2
Mike Mordecai↔ MIA 34 FA-elig 55-0.6 0.3 -1.3
Cliff Floyd↔ BOS 29 FA-elig 15-0.6 0.7 -1.7
Lee Stevens↔ CLE 34 FA-elig 63-0.6 2.2 -3.3
Andres Galarraga 41 FA-elig 104-0.7 0.5 -1.6
Fernando Tatis 27 arb 114-0.8 4.5 -5.8

Key additions (new vs 2001)

PlayerfWAR
Bartolo Colon2.1
Sun-Woo Kim0.5
Tim Drew0.5
Jose Macias0.4
Endy Chavez0.4
T.J. Tucker0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2001)

Player2001 fWAR
Mike Thurman1.0
Tim Raines Sr.0.5
Hideki Irabu0.3
Darwin Cubillan0.3
Ugueth Urbina0.3
Troy Mattes0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2002 payroll
$41.6M

What the front office was committed to as of 2002, 2002–2008. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2002200320042005200620072008
Vladimir Guerrero276.000$8.0M$11.5MFREE AGENT
Wil Cordero3010.000$3.8M$600kFREE AGENT$600k
Lee Stevens3412.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Graeme Lloyd359.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Cliff Floyd299.000$668kFREE AGENT
Andres Galarraga4117.000$500kFREE AGENT
Ed Vosberg4016.000$400kFREE AGENT
Wilton Guerrero276.000$363kFREE AGENT
Henry Rodriguez3410.000$300kFREE AGENT
Mike Mordecai348.000$296kFREE AGENT
Joey Eischen328.000—$750k$1.3M$1.0M$1.3MFREE AGENT
Troy O'Leary329.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2002200320042005200620072008
Javier Vazquez254.000$4.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Tatis275.000$4.5MFREE AGENT
Jose Vidro275.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Bartolo Colon295.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Orlando Cabrera275.000$2.4MFREE AGENT
Michael Barrett254.000$1.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Carl Pavano264.000$532kARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Herges323.000$370kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Armas243.000$335kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Masato Yoshii374.000$300kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Macias303.000$274kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lou Collier285.000$250kFREE AGENT
Peter Bergeron243.000$250kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tomo Ohka263.000$240kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Brower293.000$144kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bruce Chen254.000$82kARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Strickland263.000$5kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Smith263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2002200320042005200620072008
Britt Reames282.000$235kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Stewart261.000$235kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Schneider252.000$212kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Wilkerson251.000$206kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
T.J. Tucker232.000$200kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Truby282.000$76kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sun-Woo Kim241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Drew232.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Endy Chavez241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Henry Mateo251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Day240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Cepicky24–—
Jamey Carroll280.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 2002; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.