RRosternomics
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Orioles BAL

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GM: Syd Thrift

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.79× league · TAB -9.2
-9.2TAB — talent above budget23rd/30
-11.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)24th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars23rd/30
-4.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag19th/30
40%dead money %23rd/30
0.414win %24th/30
22.2roster fWAR23rd/30
-13surplus $M (value vs cost)15th/30
$52Mpayroll $M20th/30

Roster

CFChris Singleton 126GMelvin Mora 31GGary Matthews Jr. 16G
LFMelvin Mora 74GMarty Cordova 72GGary Matthews Jr. 16G
RFJay Gibbons 92GGary Matthews Jr. 76GLuis Matos 7G
SSMike Bordick 117GMelvin Mora 41GLuis Lopez 26G
2BJerry Hairston Jr. 119GBrian Roberts 25GLuis Lopez 12G
3BTony Batista 154GJose Leon 12GMike Moriarty 1G
1BJeff Conine 103GJay Gibbons 30GJose Leon 17G
STARTERSRodrigo Lopez 2.8WARSidney Ponson 1.7WARJason Johnson 1.6WARScott Erickson 0.6WARTravis Driskill 0.3WAR
CGeronimo Gil 125GBrook Fordyce 55GRaul Casanova 30G
DHMarty Cordova 52GChris Richard 36GDavid Segui 19G
BULLPEN★ Jorge Julio 25svBuddy Groom 19hWillis Roberts 13hB.J. Ryan 12hRick Bauer 12hYorkis Perez 1hChris Brock 0hJosh Towers 0h
CGeronimo Gil 125 · Brook Fordyce 55 · Raul Casanova 30
1BJeff Conine 103 · Jay Gibbons 30 · Jose Leon 17
2BJerry Hairston Jr. 119 · Brian Roberts 25 · Luis Lopez 12
3BTony Batista 154 · Jose Leon 12 · Mike Moriarty 1
SSMike Bordick 117 · Melvin Mora 41 · Luis Lopez 26
LFMelvin Mora 74 · Marty Cordova 72 · Gary Matthews Jr. 16
CFChris Singleton 126 · Melvin Mora 31 · Gary Matthews Jr. 16
RFJay Gibbons 92 · Gary Matthews Jr. 76 · Luis Matos 7
DHMarty Cordova 52 · Chris Richard 36 · David Segui 19
SPRodrigo Lopez 2.8 · Sidney Ponson 1.7 · Jason Johnson 1.6 · Scott Erickson 0.6 · Travis Driskill 0.3
BP★ Jorge Julio 25 · Buddy Groom 19 · Willis Roberts 13 · B.J. Ryan 12 · Rick Bauer 12 · Yorkis Perez 1 · Chris Brock 0 · Josh Towers 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2002 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Gary Matthews Jr.↔ NYM 27 arb 1093.1 3.6 +1.8
Melvin Mora 30 arb 1493.0 0.3 +4.9
Jerry Hairston Jr. 26 arb 1222.9 0.3 +4.6
Rodrigo Lopez 26 pre-arb 332.8 0.2 +4.7
Sidney Ponson 25 arb 281.7 2.6 +0.3
Chris Singleton 29 arb 1361.7 1.4 +1.5
Jason Johnson 28 arb 221.6 1.8 +1.0
Jay Gibbons 25 pre-arb 1361.6 0.2 +2.5
Buddy Groom 36 FA-elig 701.4 2.5 -0.1
Mike Bordick 36 FA-elig 1171.4 4.9 -2.5
Jorge Julio 23 pre-arb 671.0 0.2 +1.5
Tony Batista 28 FA-elig 1610.9 4.9 -3.4
Willis Roberts 27 arb 660.7 0.3 +0.9
Marty Cordova 32 FA-elig 1310.6 2.5 -1.4
Scott Erickson 34 FA-elig 290.6 5.1 -4.2
Geronimo Gil 26 pre-arb 1250.5 0.2 +0.6
Jeff Conine 36 FA-elig 1160.3 3.5 -2.9
Travis Driskill 30 – 290.3 – –
John Stephens 22 – 120.3 – –
Howie Clark 28 – 140.1 – –
David Segui 35 FA-elig 260.1 6.8 -6.6
B.J. Ryan 26 arb 670.1 0.3 -0.1
Erik Bedard 23 – 20.1 – –
Izzy Molina 31 – 10.0 – –
Yorkis Perez 34 – 230.0 – –
Fernando Lunar 25 pre-arb 20.0 0.2 -0.2
Luis C. Garcia 26 pre-arb 6-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Eric DuBose 26 – 4-0.0 – –
Raul Casanova↔ MIL 29 FA-elig 2-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Calvin Maduro 27 FA-elig 12-0.0 0.3 -0.3
Ed Rogers 23 – 5-0.1 – –
Brian Roberts 24 – 38-0.1 – –
Chris Brock 32 arb 22-0.1 1.0 -1.2
Jose Leon 25 – 36-0.1 – –
Pat Hentgen 33 FA-elig 4-0.2 4.2 -4.6
Luis Lopez↔ MIL 31 FA-elig 52-0.2 0.6 -1.0
Brook Fordyce 32 FA-elig 56-0.3 2.5 -3.0
Steve Bechler 22 – 3-0.3 – –
Sean Douglass 23 – 15-0.3 – –
Larry Bigbie 24 – 16-0.3 – –
Mike Moriarty 28 pre-arb 8-0.3 0.2 -0.8
Chris Richard 28 pre-arb 50-0.4 0.3 -1.0
Ryan McGuire 30 – 17-0.4 – –
Josh Towers 25 pre-arb 5-0.5 0.2 -1.1
Luis Matos 23 pre-arb 17-0.5 0.2 -1.1
Rick Bauer 25 pre-arb 56-0.6 0.2 -1.2

Key additions (new vs 2001)

PlayerfWAR
Gary Matthews Jr.3.1
Rodrigo Lopez2.8
Chris Singleton1.7
Marty Cordova0.6
Scott Erickson0.6
Travis Driskill0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2001)

Player2001 fWAR
Jose Mercedes2.5
John Wasdin0.7
Mike Trombley0.6
Greg Myers0.4
Tim Raines Sr.0.1
John Bale0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2002 payroll
$52.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2002, 2002–2008. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2002200320042005200620072008
David Segui3512.000$6.8M$7.0M$7.0MFREE AGENT
Scott Erickson3412.000$5.1MFREE AGENT
Tony Batista286.000$4.9M$6.4MFREE AGENT
Mike Bordick3612.000$4.9MFREE AGENT
Pat Hentgen3311.000$4.2M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Jeff Conine3612.000$3.5M$3.5MFREE AGENT$1.4M
Brook Fordyce327.000$2.5M$3.5MFREE AGENT
Buddy Groom3610.000$2.5M$3.0M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Marty Cordova327.000$2.5M$3.1MFREE AGENT
Luis Lopez319.000$628kFREE AGENT$365k
Calvin Maduro276.000$270kFREE AGENT
Raul Casanova296.000$52kFREE AGENT
Izzy Molina316.000—FREE AGENT
Yorkis Perez3411.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2002200320042005200620072008
Gary Matthews Jr.273.000$3.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sidney Ponson254.000$2.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Johnson285.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Chris Singleton293.000$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Brock325.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Melvin Mora303.000$350kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerry Hairston Jr.264.000$300kARB 3FREE AGENT
B.J. Ryan263.000$300kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willis Roberts273.000$260kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan McGuire305.000—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2002200320042005200620072008
Chris Richard282.000$300kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Towers251.000$245kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jay Gibbons251.000$232kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Matos232.000$230kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Lunar252.000$225kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Julio231.000$216kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rodrigo Lopez262.000$200kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Moriarty280.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rick Bauer251.000$200kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Geronimo Gil261.000$200kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis C. Garcia260.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Driskill30–—
Jose Leon250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric DuBose260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Douglass231.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Roberts241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Larry Bigbie241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Bechler22–—
Erik Bedard230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ed Rogers23–—
John Stephens22–—
Howie Clark28–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2002; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.