RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

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GM: Andy MacPhail

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↗ rising
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.12× league · TAB -1.1
-1.1TAB — talent above budget17th/30
-16.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)27th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars9th/30
-4.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag18th/30
24%dead money %11th/30
0.414win %24th/30
34.6roster fWAR15th/30
-14surplus $M (value vs cost)16th/30
$74Mpayroll $M11th/30

Roster

CFCorey Patterson 147GChad Hermansen 68GDarren Lewis 18G
LFMoises Alou 122GRoosevelt Brown 48GDarren Lewis 22G
RFSammy Sosa 150GChad Hermansen 11GAngel Echevarria 11G
SSAlex Gonzalez 142GAugie Ojeda 16GMark Bellhorn 12G
2BMark Bellhorn 77GBobby Hill 55GDelino DeShields 41G
3BChris Stynes 40GMark Bellhorn 36GKevin Orie 12G
1BFred McGriff 137GMark Bellhorn 22GHee-Seop Choi 22G
STARTERSMatt Clement 4.2WARKerry Wood 3.7WARJon Lieber 3.1WARMark Prior 3.0WARAlan Benes 1.0WAR
CJoe Girardi 88GTodd Hundley 79GMike Mahoney 16G
DHMoises Alou 2GFred McGriff 2GRoosevelt Brown 1G
BULLPEN★ Antonio Alfonseca 19svJoe Borowski 11hKyle Farnsworth 6hPat Mahomes 2hWill Cunnane 1hFrancis Beltran 0hDonovan Osborne 0hRon Mahay 0h
CJoe Girardi 88 · Todd Hundley 79 · Mike Mahoney 16
1BFred McGriff 137 · Mark Bellhorn 22 · Hee-Seop Choi 22
2BMark Bellhorn 77 · Bobby Hill 55 · Delino DeShields 41
3BChris Stynes 40 · Mark Bellhorn 36 · Kevin Orie 12
SSAlex Gonzalez 142 · Augie Ojeda 16 · Mark Bellhorn 12
LFMoises Alou 122 · Roosevelt Brown 48 · Darren Lewis 22
CFCorey Patterson 147 · Chad Hermansen 68 · Darren Lewis 18
RFSammy Sosa 150 · Chad Hermansen 11 · Angel Echevarria 11
DHMoises Alou 2 · Fred McGriff 2 · Roosevelt Brown 1
SPMatt Clement 4.2 · Kerry Wood 3.7 · Jon Lieber 3.1 · Mark Prior 3.0 · Alan Benes 1.0
BP★ Antonio Alfonseca 19 · Joe Borowski 11 · Kyle Farnsworth 6 · Pat Mahomes 2 · Will Cunnane 1 · Francis Beltran 0 · Donovan Osborne 0 · Ron Mahay 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2002 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Sammy Sosa 33 FA-elig 1505.1 15.0 -6.3
Matt Clement 27 arb 324.2 2.5 +4.8
Mark Bellhorn 27 arb 1463.9 0.2 +6.4
Kerry Wood 25 arb 333.7 3.7 +2.6
Jon Lieber 32 FA-elig 213.1 5.8 -0.5
Mark Prior 21 – 193.0 0.2 +4.9
Fred McGriff 38 FA-elig 1462.4 7.2 -3.1
Bill Mueller↔ SFG 31 FA-elig 1032.3 3.2 +0.8
Joe Borowski 31 FA-elig 731.5 0.2 +2.3
Moises Alou 35 FA-elig 1321.4 6.0 -3.7
Alex Gonzalez 29 FA-elig 1421.0 4.2 -2.5
Alan Benes 30 – 71.0 – –
Carlos Zambrano 21 – 320.8 0.2 +1.2
Jason Bere 31 FA-elig 160.7 3.4 -2.2
Antonio Alfonseca 30 arb 660.7 3.5 -2.4
Darren Lewis 34 FA-elig 580.6 0.5 +0.5
Robert Machado↔ MIL 29 FA-elig 220.5 0.1 +0.7
Bobby Hill 24 – 590.4 – –
Tom Gordon↔ HOU 34 FA-elig 190.4 1.6 -0.8
Angel Echevarria 31 – 500.4 – –
Roosevelt Brown 26 arb 1110.4 0.3 +0.4
Delino DeShields 33 FA-elig 670.4 1.2 -0.6
Jeff Fassero↔ STL 39 FA-elig 570.3 2.2 -1.7
Todd Hundley 33 FA-elig 920.3 6.5 -6.1
Chris Stynes 29 FA-elig 980.2 1.2 -0.9
Corey Patterson 22 pre-arb 1530.2 0.2 +0.2
Kevin Orie 29 – 130.2 – –
Mike Mahoney 29 – 160.1 – –
Courtney Duncan 27 – 20.0 – –
Donovan Osborne 33 FA-elig 110.0 0.5 -0.4
Juan Cruz 23 pre-arb 450.0 0.2 -0.2
Pat Mahomes 31 – 18-0.0 – –
Will Cunnane 28 – 16-0.0 – –
Scott Chiasson 24 – 4-0.2 – –
Mario Encarnacion 26 – 3-0.2 – –
Francis Beltran 22 – 11-0.3 – –
Hee-Seop Choi 23 – 24-0.4 – –
Augie Ojeda 27 pre-arb 30-0.5 0.2 -1.0
Kyle Farnsworth 26 arb 45-0.5 0.4 -1.2
Jesus Sanchez 27 arb 8-0.5 1.4 -2.2
Chad Hermansen↔ PIT 24 arb 35-0.5 0.1 -0.9
Joe Girardi 37 FA-elig 90-0.5 1.5 -2.3
Ron Mahay 31 – 11-0.5 – –
Steve Smyth 24 – 8-0.5 – –

Key additions (new vs 2001)

PlayerfWAR
Matt Clement4.2
Mark Bellhorn3.9
Mark Prior3.0
Moises Alou1.4
Alex Gonzalez1.0
Alan Benes1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2001)

Player2001 fWAR
Kevin Tapani3.1
Julian Tavarez2.1
Ricky Gutierrez1.8
Rondell White1.7
Matt Stairs1.4
Eric Young Sr.1.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2002 payroll
$73.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2002, 2002–2008. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2002200320042005200620072008
Sammy Sosa3313.000$15.0M$16.0M$16.0MFREE AGENT
Fred McGriff3816.000$7.2MFREE AGENT
Todd Hundley3312.000$6.5MFREE AGENT
Moises Alou3512.000$6.0M$9.5M$9.5MFREE AGENT
Jon Lieber328.000$5.8MFREE AGENT$3.5M
Alex Gonzalez298.000$4.2M$5.8M$2.6MFREE AGENT
Jason Bere319.000$3.4MFREE AGENT
Bill Mueller316.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Jeff Fassero3911.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Tom Gordon3414.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Joe Girardi3713.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Delino DeShields3312.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Chris Stynes297.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Darren Lewis3412.000$500kFREE AGENT
Donovan Osborne3310.000$450kFREE AGENT
Joe Borowski317.000$235k$410k$2.0M$1.7MFREE AGENT
Robert Machado296.000$84kFREE AGENT
Alan Benes307.000—FREE AGENT
Angel Echevarria316.000—FREE AGENT
Ron Mahay317.000—FREE AGENT
Pat Mahomes3110.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2002200320042005200620072008
Kerry Wood254.000$3.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Antonio Alfonseca305.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Matt Clement274.000$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesus Sanchez274.000$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Farnsworth263.000$410kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roosevelt Brown263.000$255kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Bellhorn275.000$224kFREE AGENT
Chad Hermansen243.000$78kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Cunnane285.000—FREE AGENT
Kevin Orie295.000—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2002200320042005200620072008
Mark Prior210.000$250kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Augie Ojeda272.000$240kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Patterson222.000$228kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Cruz231.000$215kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Zambrano211.000$200kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Mahoney29–—
Mario Encarnacion26–—
Scott Chiasson24–—
Courtney Duncan271.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hee-Seop Choi230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francis Beltran22–—
Steve Smyth24–—
Bobby Hill240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2002; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.