Rosternomics

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John Mirabelli

Guardians

2000–2007 · 8 drafts · 410 picks

Early-Round Selection
-20.9
#163 of 172
rds 1–10, cost-ctrl
Late-Round Value
-9.9
#119 of 172
rds 11+, total career
Total DVOS
-92.8
#169 of 172
-11.60/draft
Hitter DVOS
+2.9
#110 of 172
reliable skill (+0.54)
Career fWAR drafted
87
#77 of 172

Value by position — where the value came from (descriptive)

PosPicksfWARDVOS
P2854 +17.1
IF1323 +2.7
OF610 +2.6
C3-0 -2.4

Position from each player's primary MLB fielding spot; never-MLB picks excluded. This table is descriptive, not a skill ranking — per-position DVOS isn't reliable at this granularity (split-half ≈ 0 for P/OF, a small-sample mirage for C). The one reliable position cut is Hitter vs Pitcher: drafting hitters (C/IF/OF) above slot repeats (split-half +0.54, the KPI above), but drafting pitchers above slot does not (≈ 0) — so we rank Hitter DVOS and leave pitcher out.

Top picks — who drove the value

YrOvrPlayerPosfWARExpDVOS
2006161Chris ArcherP 20.70.8 +19.9
2001277Luke ScottDH 11.40.5 +10.9
200222Jeremy GuthrieP 11.34.9 +6.4
2003168Kevin Kouzmanoff3B 9.50.8 +8.7
2000426Ryan ChurchOF 8.30.2 +8.1
2006581Josh TomlinP 7.10.2 +6.8
2006611Vinnie PestanoP 2.60.1 +2.6
20046Jeremy SowersP 2.512.6 -10.1
2000246Joe Inglett2B 2.50.5 +2.0
200656Steven WrightP 2.31.8 +0.5
2003468Aaron LaffeyP 2.30.2 +2.0
2002154Ben FranciscoOF 2.10.8 +1.3
2004557Chris GimenezC 2.10.2 +1.8
20041333Tony SippP 1.50.1 +1.4
200639David HuffP 1.32.8 -1.5

By draft class

YearPicksfWARExpectedDVOS
20004812.3 18.3-5.9
20015311.4 24.8-13.4
20025413.4 24.6-11.2
20035212.1 29.9-17.8
2004505.6 26.0-20.4
200552-0.4 21.1-21.6
20065332.6 19.4+13.2
2007480.4 16.0-15.6
Total410 87 -92.8

DVOS = Σ (a pick's career fWAR − the expected fWAR for that overall slot), credited to the scouting director SABR lists for that draft. We only attribute years with one unambiguous director on record; years where SABR lists multiple names (handoffs/overlaps) or none are left out, so a director's record here may skip years he was involved in — see the coverage note on the leaderboard. Single drafts are noise-dominated — one star swamps a class — so read the multi-year totals, not any one year. Full method on the DVOS page.