Rosternomics
JL

Jeff Luhnow

Born Dec 29, 1966 · Mexico City · age 59

Architect of the Houston Astros' analytics-driven tear-down and rebuild that produced the 2017 World Series title; his tenure ended with his 2020 dismissal and suspension over the team's sign-stealing scandal.

9 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Titles1
Pennants2
Playoffs5
Record686–670
Win %0.506
+43.0WAB — wins above budget23rd/195 execs
+81.2Talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation)8th/195 execs
2.06Acquisition leverage — playoff pts each bought win added, given the roster it joined (did you buy where wins matter?)19th/195 execs
+54.3WAR surplus (era-neutral, win-equiv)8th/195 execs
+111Roster surplus $M11th/195 execs

How the roster was sourced

Share of gross-positive acquired fWAR by channel (vs. league average).

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+169.8
Trade+0.1
Free agency-47.9
Rule 5 / minor draft+1.2
Sourcing mix: 59% draft · 14% FA · 27% trade · 0% R5

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Astros GM 2012–2020 8 +43.0 +5.37 +81.2 +54.3 +169.8 +0.1 -47.9 +1.2 2.06 0.506 521 +111
Career total (1985+ data) 9 +43.0 +81.2 +54.3 +169.8 +0.1 -47.9 +1.2 2.06 0.506 52 1 +111

Players acquired — 103 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year fWAR
Alex Bregman 3B HOU Draft 2015 +39.6
Carlos Correa SS HOU Draft 2012 +27.4
Yordan Álvarez DH/OF HOU Trade 2016 +25.9
Kyle Tucker OF HOU Draft 2015 +20.9
Framber Valdez P HOU Intl FA 2015 +20.4
Lance McCullers P HOU Draft 2012 +14.7
Justin Verlander P HOU Trade 2017 +13.0
Yuli Gurriel 1B HOU Intl FA 2016 +10.6
Michael Brantley OF HOU Free agency 2018 +8.5
Ryan Pressly P HOU Trade 2018 +8.0
Cristian Javier P HOU Intl FA 2015 +7.3
Chas McCormick OF HOU Draft 2017 +7.3
Jake Marisnick OF HOU Trade 2014 +6.9
Jake Meyers OF HOU Draft 2017 +6.8
Josh Reddick OF HOU Free agency 2016 +6.7
Luis García P HOU Intl FA 2017 +5.9
Charlie Morton P HOU Free agency 2016 +5.9
Bryan Abreu P HOU Intl FA 2013 +5.6
José Urquidy P HOU Intl FA 2015 +4.2
Chris Devenski P HOU Trade 2012 +4.1
Aledmys Díaz SS HOU Trade 2018 +3.8
Colby Rasmus OF HOU Free agency 2015 +3.8
Luis Valbuena 3B HOU Trade 2015 +3.5
Ken Giles P HOU Trade 2015 +3.2
Max Stassi C HOU Trade 2013 +3.2
Brian McCann C HOU Trade 2016 +2.8
Robinson Chirinos C HOU Free agency 2018 +2.5
Luke Gregerson P HOU Free agency 2014 +2.2
Scott Feldman P HOU Free agency 2013 +2.1
Dexter Fowler OF HOU Trade 2013 +2.1
Wade Miley P HOU Free agency 2019 +2.0
Roberto Osuna P HOU Trade 2018 +1.8
Joe Musgrove P HOU Trade 2012 +1.6
Tony Sipp P HOU Free agency 2014 +1.6
Tyler White 1B HOU Draft 2013 +1.4
Érik Bédard P HOU Free agency 2013 +1.3
Jed Lowrie 2B/SS HOU Free agency 2014 +1.1
Héctor Rondón P HOU Free agency 2017 +1.1
Myles Straw OF HOU Draft 2015 +1.0
Martín Maldonado C HOU Free agency 2019 +0.9
Doug Fister P HOU Free agency 2016 +0.7
Robbie Grossman OF HOU Trade 2012 +0.6
Josh James P HOU Draft 2014 +0.6
Pat Neshek P HOU Free agency 2014 +0.6
Joe Smith P HOU Free agency 2017 +0.6
Rogelio Armenteros P HOU Intl FA 2014 +0.5
Tony Kemp 2B/OF HOU Draft 2013 +0.5
Gregorio Petit 2B/SS HOU Free agency 2014 +0.5
Seth Martinez P HOU Rule 5 2020 +0.4
Roberto Hernández P HOU Free agency 2015 +0.3
Édgar González P HOU Free agency 2012 +0.3
James Hoyt P HOU Trade 2015 +0.3
Chris Snyder C HOU Free agency 2012 +0.3
Joe Thatcher P HOU Free agency 2015 +0.3
Francis Martes P HOU Trade 2014 +0.2
Enoli Paredes P HOU Intl FA 2015 +0.2
David Paulino P HOU Trade 2013 +0.1
Peter Solomon P HOU Draft 2017 +0.1
Asher Wojciechowski P HOU Trade 2012 +0.1
Brandon Bailey P HOU Trade 2017 -0.0
Ronnie Dawson DH HOU Draft 2016 -0.0
Alex De Goti 2B HOU Draft 2016 +0.0
Chase De Jong P HOU Free agency 2020 -0.0
Dayán Díaz P HOU Free agency 2017 +0.0
Tyler Ivey P HOU Draft 2017 -0.0
Colin Moran 1B/3B HOU Trade 2014 -0.0
Cy Sneed P HOU Trade 2015 -0.0
Blake Taylor P HOU Trade 2019 +0.0
Abraham Toro 2B/3B HOU Draft 2016 -0.0
Danny Worth 2B/SS HOU Free agency 2016 -0.0
Joe Biagini P HOU Trade 2019 -0.1
Humberto Castellanos P HOU Draft 2020 -0.1
Dean Deetz P HOU Draft 2014 -0.1
Kent Emanuel P HOU Draft 2013 -0.1
Ryan Hartman P HOU Draft 2016 -0.1
Chia-Jen Lo P HOU Draft 2013 -0.1
Jack Mayfield 3B HOU Intl FA 2013 -0.1
Rudy Owens P HOU Trade 2012 -0.1
Carlos Sanabria P HOU Intl FA 2014 -0.1
Brandon Bielak P HOU Draft 2017 -0.2
Juan Centeno C HOU Free agency 2016 -0.2
Kevin Chapman P HOU Trade 2012 -0.2
Derek Fisher OF HOU Draft 2014 -0.2
Jordan Jankowski P HOU Draft 2012 -0.2
Andre Scrubb P HOU Trade 2019 -0.2
Cody Clark C HOU Trade 2013 -0.3
Trevor Crowe OF HOU Free agency 2012 -0.3
Matt Dominguez 3B HOU Trade 2012 -0.3
Dustin Garneau C HOU Free agency 2019 -0.3
Taylor Jones 1B/DH HOU Draft 2016 -0.3
Cionel Pérez P HOU Intl FA 2016 -0.3
Brady Rodgers P HOU Draft 2012 -0.3
Preston Tucker OF HOU Draft 2012 -0.3
J. D. Davis 3B HOU Draft 2014 -0.4
Garrett Stubbs C HOU Draft 2015 -0.4
Héctor Ambriz P HOU Free agency 2012 -0.5
Corbin Martin P HOU Draft 2017 -0.5
Nivaldo Rodriguez P HOU Intl FA 2016 -0.5
Armando Galarraga P HOU Free agency 2012 -0.7
Marc Krauss 1B/OF HOU Trade 2012 -0.8
A. J. Reed 1B/DH HOU Draft 2014 -0.9
Anthony Bass P HOU Trade 2013 -1.0
Carlos Beltrán OF HOU Free agency 2016 -1.2

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.