RRosternomics
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JL

Jeff Luhnow

Born Dec 29, 1966 · Mexico City · age 59

Architect of the Houston Astros' analytics-driven tear-down and rebuild that produced the 2017 World Series title; his tenure ended with his 2020 dismissal and suspension over the team's sign-stealing scandal.

9 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles1
Pennants2
Playoffs5
Record686–670
Win %0.506
+5.9GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±4.96th/195 execs
6.7Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)70th/195 execs
-4.8Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)73rd/195 execs
37%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)114th/195 execs
$40MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track25th/195 execs
$26MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)4th/195 execs
$9MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade47th/195 execs
$5MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees17th/195 execs
+81.7TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total8th/195 execs
+43.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)22nd/195 execs
1.74Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)95th/195 execs
+111Roster surplus $M11th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
▸ Astros GM 2012–2020 8 +43.4 +5.43 +81.7 +54.3 +169.6 -0.9 -49.1 +1.3 1.74 0.506 521 +111
Career total (1985+ data) 9 +43.4 +81.7 +54.3 +169.6 -0.9 -49.1 +1.3 1.74 0.506 52 1 +111

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

by valueby volume

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+169.6
Trade-0.9
Free agency-49.1
Rule 5 / minor draft+1.3
Sourcing mix: 57% draft · 14% FA · 29% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Jeff Luhnow's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 129 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Alex Bregman 3B HOU Draft 2015 9 +39.6 +4.4 –
Yordan Álvarez DH/OF HOU Trade 2016 8 +28.3 +3.5 –
Carlos Correa SS HOU Draft 2012 9 +27.4 +3.0 –
Kyle Tucker OF HOU Draft 2015 6 +20.9 +3.5 –
Framber Valdez P HOU Intl FA 2015 8 +20.4 +2.6 –
Lance McCullers P HOU Draft 2012 8 +14.7 +1.8 –
Gerrit Cole P HOU Trade 2018 2 +13.2 +6.6 3.9
Justin Verlander P HOU Trade 2017 6 +13.0 +2.2 3.1
Collin McHugh P HOU Trade 2014 6 +12.1 +2.0 0.8
Yuli Gurriel 1B HOU Intl FA 2016 5 +10.6 +2.1 –
Michael Brantley OF HOU Free agency 2018 5 +8.5 +1.7 0.6
Ryan Pressly P HOU Trade 2018 7 +8.0 +1.1 0.9
Cristian Javier P HOU Intl FA 2015 6 +7.3 +1.2 –
Chas McCormick OF HOU Draft 2017 3 +7.3 +2.4 –
Jake Marisnick OF HOU Trade 2014 6 +6.9 +1.2 0.2
Jake Meyers OF HOU Draft 2017 5 +6.7 +1.3 –
Josh Reddick OF HOU Free agency 2016 3 +6.7 +2.2 10.7
Luis García P HOU Intl FA 2017 5 +5.9 +1.2 –
Charlie Morton P HOU Free agency 2016 2 +5.9 +3.0 8.9
Bryan Abreu P HOU Intl FA 2013 6 +5.5 +0.9 –
Will Harris P HOU Trade 2015 5 +5.2 +1.0 1.9
Zack Greinke P HOU Trade 2019 3 +5.0 +1.7 0.3
Brad Peacock P HOU Trade 2013 6 +4.9 +0.8 0.0
Evan Gattis C/DH HOU Trade 2015 4 +4.8 +1.2 1.3
José Urquidy P HOU Intl FA 2015 5 +4.2 +0.8 –
Chris Devenski P HOU Trade 2012 3 +4.1 +1.4 –
Aledmys Díaz SS HOU Trade 2018 4 +3.8 +0.9 0.3
Colby Rasmus OF HOU Free agency 2015 2 +3.8 +1.9 14.8
Luis Valbuena 3B HOU Trade 2015 2 +3.5 +1.7 7.9
Ken Giles P HOU Trade 2015 3 +3.2 +1.1 9.7
Max Stassi C HOU Trade 2013 4 +3.2 +0.8 –
Brian McCann C HOU Trade 2016 2 +2.8 +1.4 7.2
Chris Carter 1B/DH HOU Trade 2013 3 +2.7 +0.9 0.0
Robinson Chirinos C HOU Free agency 2018 1 +2.5 +2.5 0.4
Luke Gregerson P HOU Free agency 2014 2 +2.2 +1.1 5.8
Scott Feldman P HOU Free agency 2013 3 +2.1 +0.7 0.4
Dexter Fowler OF HOU Trade 2013 1 +2.1 +2.1 0.6
Wade Miley P HOU Free agency 2019 1 +2.0 +2.0 0.3
Justin Maxwell OF HOU Trade 2012 2 +2.0 +1.0 0.0
Mike Fiers P HOU Trade 2015 2 +2.0 +1.0 2.6
Roberto Osuna P HOU Trade 2018 3 +1.8 +0.6 0.5
Joe Musgrove P HOU Trade 2012 2 +1.6 +0.8 –
Tony Sipp P HOU Free agency 2014 3 +1.6 +0.5 0.3
Tyler White 1B HOU Draft 2013 2 +1.4 +0.7 –
Érik Bédard P HOU Free agency 2013 1 +1.3 +1.3 0.0
Jed Lowrie 2B/SS HOU Free agency 2014 2 +1.1 +0.6 0.0
Héctor Rondón P HOU Free agency 2017 1 +1.1 +1.1 1.1
Myles Straw OF HOU Draft 2015 3 +1.0 +0.3 –
Brooks Raley P HOU Trade 2020 2 +1.0 +0.5 4.1
Martín Maldonado C HOU Free agency 2019 5 +0.9 +0.2 0.6
Hank Conger C HOU Trade 2015 1 +0.9 +0.9 4.5
Doug Fister P HOU Free agency 2016 1 +0.7 +0.7 4.9
Scott Moore 1B/3B HOU Trade 2012 1 +0.7 +0.7 0.0
Robbie Grossman OF HOU Trade 2012 2 +0.6 +0.3 –
Josh James P HOU Draft 2014 3 +0.6 +0.2 –
Pat Neshek P HOU Free agency 2014 2 +0.6 +0.3 0.8
Joe Smith P HOU Free agency 2017 2 +0.6 +0.3 0.2
José Veras P HOU Trade 2013 2 +0.6 +0.3 0.0
Rogelio Armenteros P HOU Intl FA 2014 1 +0.5 +0.5 –
Tony Kemp 2B/OF HOU Draft 2013 2 +0.5 +0.2 –
Gregorio Petit 2B/SS HOU Free agency 2014 1 +0.5 +0.5 0.2
Nori Aoki OF HOU Trade 2017 1 +0.5 +0.5 1.5
Seth Martinez P HOU Rule 5 2020 3 +0.4 +0.1 –
Tyler Greene 2B/SS HOU Trade 2012 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.0
Roberto Hernández P HOU Free agency 2015 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.3
Édgar González P HOU Free agency 2012 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.0
James Hoyt P HOU Trade 2015 1 +0.3 +0.3 –
Chris Snyder C HOU Free agency 2012 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.0
Joe Thatcher P HOU Free agency 2015 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.3
Francis Martes P HOU Trade 2014 1 +0.2 +0.2 –
Enoli Paredes P HOU Intl FA 2015 1 +0.2 +0.2 –
Fernando Rodriguez P HOU Trade 2012 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.0
David Paulino P HOU Trade 2013 2 +0.1 +0.1 –
Peter Solomon P HOU Draft 2017 1 +0.1 +0.1 –
Asher Wojciechowski P HOU Trade 2012 1 +0.1 +0.1 –
Óliver Pérez P HOU Trade 2015 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.5
Carlos Gómez OF HOU Trade 2015 1 +0.1 +0.1 3.8
Sam Deduno P HOU Trade 2014 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Dan Straily P HOU Trade 2015 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.3
Brandon Bailey P HOU Trade 2017 – -0.0 – –
Ronnie Dawson DH HOU Draft 2016 – -0.0 – –
Alex De Goti 2B HOU Draft 2016 1 +0.0 +0.0 –
Chase De Jong P HOU Free agency 2020 – -0.0 – –
Dayán Díaz P HOU Free agency 2017 1 +0.0 +0.0 –
Tyler Ivey P HOU Draft 2017 – -0.0 – –
Colin Moran 1B/3B HOU Trade 2014 1 -0.0 -0.0 –
Cy Sneed P HOU Trade 2015 1 -0.0 -0.0 –
Blake Taylor P HOU Trade 2019 2 +0.0 +0.0 –
Abraham Toro 2B/3B HOU Draft 2016 2 -0.0 -0.0 –
Danny Worth 2B/SS HOU Free agency 2016 – -0.0 – –
Francisco Liriano P HOU Trade 2017 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Travis Buck OF HOU Trade 2012 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Ashur Tolliver P HOU Trade 2017 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Joe Biagini P HOU Trade 2019 – -0.1 – –
Humberto Castellanos P HOU Draft 2020 – -0.1 – –
Dean Deetz P HOU Draft 2014 – -0.1 – –
Kent Emanuel P HOU Draft 2013 – -0.1 – –
Ryan Hartman P HOU Draft 2016 – -0.1 – –
Chia-Jen Lo P HOU Draft 2013 – -0.1 – –
Jack Mayfield 3B HOU Intl FA 2013 1 -0.1 -0.1 –
Rudy Owens P HOU Trade 2012 – -0.1 – –
Carlos Sanabria P HOU Intl FA 2014 – -0.1 – –
Brandon Laird 1B/3B HOU Trade 2012 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Brandon Bielak P HOU Draft 2017 2 -0.2 -0.1 –
Juan Centeno C HOU Free agency 2016 – -0.2 – –
Kevin Chapman P HOU Trade 2012 2 -0.2 -0.1 –
Derek Fisher OF HOU Draft 2014 2 -0.2 -0.1 –
Jordan Jankowski P HOU Draft 2012 – -0.2 – –
Andre Scrubb P HOU Trade 2019 1 -0.2 -0.2 –
Fernando Martínez OF HOU Trade 2012 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0
Cody Clark C HOU Trade 2013 – -0.3 – –
Trevor Crowe OF HOU Free agency 2012 – -0.3 – –
Matt Dominguez 3B HOU Trade 2012 2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0
Dustin Garneau C HOU Free agency 2019 – -0.3 – –
Taylor Jones 1B/DH HOU Draft 2016 – -0.3 – –
Cionel Pérez P HOU Intl FA 2016 1 -0.3 -0.3 –
Brady Rodgers P HOU Draft 2012 – -0.3 – –
Preston Tucker OF HOU Draft 2012 1 -0.3 -0.3 –
J. D. Davis 3B HOU Draft 2014 1 -0.4 -0.4 –
Garrett Stubbs C HOU Draft 2015 – -0.4 – –
Héctor Ambriz P HOU Free agency 2012 1 -0.5 -0.5 0.0
Corbin Martin P HOU Draft 2017 – -0.5 – –
Nivaldo Rodriguez P HOU Intl FA 2016 – -0.5 – –
L. J. Hoes OF HOU Trade 2013 2 -0.6 -0.3 0.0
Armando Galarraga P HOU Free agency 2012 – -0.7 – –
Marc Krauss 1B/OF HOU Trade 2012 – -0.8 – –
A. J. Reed 1B/DH HOU Draft 2014 – -0.9 – –
Anthony Bass P HOU Trade 2013 – -1.0 – –
Carlos Beltrán OF HOU Free agency 2016 1 -1.2 -1.2 20.4

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.