HOU⇄NYY

HOUHOU Jeff Luhnow net +$2.4M net +0.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2015 odds 67% → 69% (+2.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

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NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$2.4M net -0.5

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $9M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 1 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2015 odds 39% → 37% (-2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gregorio Petit2B/SS·30y·R/R

+$2.9M+$2.9M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 1 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.49/yr blended

Horizon

4.4 control yrs × 0.57 age decline

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Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.