ANA⇄HOU

ANAANA Billy Eppler net +$11.2M net +3.7

received +$31.2M+$31.2M ± $42M expected surplus · +$11.2M realized received 6.5 ± 5 expected · 3.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2019 odds 2% → 2% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Max StassiC·28y·R/R

+$31.3M+$31.3M± $42M exp surplusrealized +$11.2M 6.5± 5 exp WARrealized 3.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.8/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

1.64/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.99 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Jeff Luhnow net −$11.2M net -3.7

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2019 odds 100% → 100% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Raider Uceta

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Rainier Rivas

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.