HOU⇄TOR

HOUHOU Jeff Luhnow net −$3.2M net +1.9

received +$16.8M+$16.8M ± $38M expected surplus · +$9.6M realized received 4.7 ± 5 expected · 3.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2019 odds 100% → 100% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Aledmys DíazSS·28y·R/R

+$16.8M+$16.8M± $38M exp surplusrealized +$9.6M 4.7± 5 exp WARrealized 3.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

1.21/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR Mark Shapiro net +$3.2M net -1.9

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$12.8M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 1.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2019 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Trent ThorntonP·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$12.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 1.8

Prior

#139 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.