MIL⇄HOU

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net +$29.6M net +4.6

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $27M expected surplus · +$29.6M realized received 0.8 ± 3 expected · 4.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2016 odds 2% → 3% (+1.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jonathan Villar2B/SS·25y·B/R

+$0.5M+$0.5M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$29.6M 0.8± 3 exp WARrealized 4.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.16/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Jeff Luhnow net −$29.6M net -4.6

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $18M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2016 odds 75% → 58% (-17.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cy SneedP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#85 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.