TOR⇄HOU

TORTOR Alex Anthopoulos net +$77.6M net +10.3

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $37M expected surplus · +$73.6M realized received 2.9 ± 5 expected · 11.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2012 odds 1% → 1% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

J. A. HappP·29y·L/L

+$13.7M+$13.7M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$76.8M 2.1± 3 exp WARrealized 11.2

Prior

#92 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.74/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Brandon LyonP·32y·R/R

−$1.8M−$1.8M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.38/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

David CarpenterP·26y·R/R

−$2.4M−$2.4M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.4± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#376 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.07/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Jeff Luhnow net −$77.6M net -10.3

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $50M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 7.1 ± 6 expected · 1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2012 odds 0% → 0% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ben FranciscoOF·30y·R/R

+$3.2M+$3.2M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.40/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.88 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Kevin ComerP·19y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#57 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Asher WojciechowskiP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#41 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Carlos PérezC·21y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

David RollinsP·22y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#577 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Joe MusgroveP·19y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$7.2M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 1.6

Prior

#46 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Francisco CorderoP·37y·R/R

−$4.6M−$4.6M± $4M exp surplusrealized −$9.6M 0.3± 0 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

0.54/yr blended

Horizon

0.6 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.