RRosternomics
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Astros HOU

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GM: Jeff Luhnow

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 5 in this regime · payroll 0.42× league · TAB -0.1
-0.1TAB — talent above budget15th/30
-0.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)18th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars15th/30
-9.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag30th/30
34%dead money %14th/30
0.432win %26th/30
23.5roster fWAR28th/30
+23surplus $M (value vs cost)6th/30
$48Mpayroll $M29th/30

Roster

CFDexter Fowler 111GJake Marisnick 30GAlex Presley 21G
LFRobbie Grossman 67GAlex Presley 43GL.J. Hoes 36G
RFGeorge Springer 71GRobbie Grossman 32GJake Marisnick 31G
SSJonathan Villar 82GMarwin Gonzalez 71GGregorio Petit 19G
2BJose Altuve 156GMarwin Gonzalez 11GGregorio Petit 4G
3BMatt Dominguez 153GGregorio Petit 12GMarwin Gonzalez 10G
1BJon Singleton 91GJesus Guzman 52GMarc Krauss 33G
STARTERSDallas Keuchel 3.5WARCollin McHugh 3.0WARBrett Oberholtzer 2.1WARScott Feldman 1.3WARSamuel Deduno 0.2WAR
CJason Castro 114GCarlos Corporán 54GMax Stassi 6G
DHChris Carter 118GJason Castro 11GAlex Presley 5G
BULLPEN★ Chad Qualls 19svTony Sipp 11hDarin Downs 10hJosh Fields 8hKyle Farnsworth 8hJose Veras 6hKevin Chapman 5hJosh Zeid 3h
CJason Castro 114 · Carlos Corporán 54 · Max Stassi 6
1BJon Singleton 91 · Jesus Guzman 52 · Marc Krauss 33
2BJose Altuve 156 · Marwin Gonzalez 11 · Gregorio Petit 4
3BMatt Dominguez 153 · Gregorio Petit 12 · Marwin Gonzalez 10
SSJonathan Villar 82 · Marwin Gonzalez 71 · Gregorio Petit 19
LFRobbie Grossman 67 · Alex Presley 43 · L.J. Hoes 36
CFDexter Fowler 111 · Jake Marisnick 30 · Alex Presley 21
RFGeorge Springer 71 · Robbie Grossman 32 · Jake Marisnick 31
DHChris Carter 118 · Jason Castro 11 · Alex Presley 5
SPDallas Keuchel 3.5 · Collin McHugh 3.0 · Brett Oberholtzer 2.1 · Scott Feldman 1.3 · Samuel Deduno 0.2
BP★ Chad Qualls 19 · Tony Sipp 11 · Darin Downs 10 · Josh Fields 8 · Kyle Farnsworth 8 · Jose Veras 6 · Kevin Chapman 5 · Josh Zeid 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2014 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jose Altuve 24 arb 1585.2 1.2 +13.9
Dallas Keuchel 26 pre-arb 303.5 0.5 +9.7
Collin McHugh 27 pre-arb 253.0 0.4 +8.4
Jason Castro 27 arb 1262.1 2.5 +3.8
Dexter Fowler 28 FA-elig 1162.1 7.3 -1.1
Brett Oberholtzer 24 pre-arb 242.1 0.5 +5.6
Chris Carter 27 arb 1451.9 0.5 +5.0
George Springer 24 – 781.9 0.5 +5.0
Josh Fields 28 pre-arb 541.4 0.5 +3.7
Marwin Gonzalez 25 pre-arb 1031.3 0.5 +3.3
Scott Feldman 31 FA-elig 291.3 12.0 -8.3
Carlos Corporán 30 arb 551.2 0.5 +2.9
Jarred Cosart↔ MIA 24 pre-arb 200.9 0.3 +2.2
Tony Sipp 30 arb 560.9 0.4 +2.1
Jake Marisnick↔ MIA 23 pre-arb 510.8 0.4 +2.0
Enrique Hernández↔ MIA 22 – 240.7 0.1 +1.9
Robbie Grossman 24 pre-arb 1030.6 0.5 +1.2
Chad Qualls 35 FA-elig 580.5 2.7 -1.2
Gregorio Petit 29 – 370.5 – –
Nick Tropeano 23 – 40.4 0.1 +1.0
Samuel Deduno↔ MIN 30 arb 50.2 0.1 +0.6
Matt Albers 31 FA-elig 80.2 2.2 -1.7
Max Stassi 23 pre-arb 70.2 0.1 +0.5
Jonathan Villar 23 pre-arb 870.1 0.5 -0.3
Jose Veras↔ CHC 33 FA-elig 340.1 2.8 -2.7
José Cisnero 25 pre-arb 50.0 0.4 -0.4
Kyle Farnsworth↔ NYM 38 – 16-0.0 0.5 -0.5
David Martinez 26 – 3-0.0 – –
Mike Foltynewicz 22 – 16-0.1 0.2 -0.3
Rudy Owens 26 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Lucas Harrell 29 arb 3-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Alex Presley 28 pre-arb 89-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Darin Downs 29 pre-arb 45-0.2 0.4 -1.0
Jorge De Leon 26 – 8-0.2 – –
Jake Buchanan 24 – 17-0.2 0.2 -0.9
Raul Valdes 36 – 8-0.3 – –
Kevin Chapman 26 pre-arb 21-0.3 0.5 -1.4
Brad Peacock 26 arb 28-0.3 0.5 -1.5
Jerome Williams↔ PHI 32 FA-elig 26-0.4 1.5 -2.6
Jesus Guzman 30 arb 69-0.5 1.3 -2.8
Domingo Santana 21 – 6-0.5 – –
Paul Clemens 26 pre-arb 13-0.6 0.1 -1.8
Marc Krauss 26 pre-arb 67-0.6 0.5 -2.4
Josh Zeid 27 pre-arb 23-0.6 0.3 -2.2
L.J. Hoes 24 pre-arb 55-0.7 0.5 -2.4
Jon Singleton 22 pre-arb 95-0.9 1.5 -4.2
Anthony Bass 26 arb 21-1.0 0.5 -3.5
Matt Dominguez 24 arb 157-1.3 0.5 -4.4

Key additions (new vs 2013)

PlayerfWAR
Collin McHugh3.0
Dexter Fowler2.1
George Springer1.9
Scott Feldman1.3
Tony Sipp0.9
Jake Marisnick0.8

Key subtractions (gone from 2013)

Player2013 fWAR
Bud Norris1.9
Erik Bedard1.3
Brandon Barnes0.9
Jordan Lyles0.4
Brett Wallace0.3
Justin Maxwell0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2014 payroll
$47.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2014, 2014–2020. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Scott Feldman317.091$12.0M$10.0M$5.2MFREE AGENT
Jose Veras336.128$2.8MFREE AGENT
Chad Qualls359.058$2.7M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Albers316.141$2.2MFREE AGENT
Jerome Williams3211.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Kyle Farnsworth3814.100$457kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (4)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Dexter Fowler284.168$7.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Castro273.104$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Sipp304.122$407kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarred Cosart243.113$333kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (38)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Jon Singleton220.000$1.5MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesus Guzman302.151$1.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Altuve242.072$1.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Presley281.162$511kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Dominguez242.062$510kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Carter272.159$510kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Harrell292.083$510kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dallas Keuchel261.089$509kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Fields281.000$506kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Corporán302.019$505kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Bass262.031$505kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robbie Grossman240.099$504kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marwin Gonzalez251.133$504kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Peacock260.124$504kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Villar230.070$504kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Oberholtzer240.079$504kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Chapman260.052$503kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
L.J. Hoes240.087$503kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marc Krauss261.108$502kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
George Springer240.000$454kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Collin McHugh270.097$434kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Cisnero250.107$426kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darin Downs292.044$402kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Marisnick230.069$392kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Zeid270.062$344kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Buchanan240.000$216kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Foltynewicz220.000$161kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Clemens260.144$139kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Enrique Hernández220.000$94kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Samuel Deduno301.096$74kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Max Stassi230.041$74kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Tropeano230.000$74kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rudy Owens26–$16k
Raul Valdes362.085—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Martinez26–—
Gregorio Petit290.056—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge De Leon26–—
Domingo Santana210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 2014; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.