RRosternomics
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Astros HOU

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GM: Jeff Luhnow

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.44× league · TAB -8.1
-8.1TAB — talent above budget23rd/30
-16.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)28th/30
2.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars30th/30
-6.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag23rd/30
52%dead money %29th/30
0.340win %30th/30
16.0roster fWAR29th/30
-4surplus $M (value vs cost)12th/30
$44Mpayroll $M30th/30

Roster

CFJordan Schafer 87GJustin Maxwell 59GBrandon Barnes 32G
LFJ.D. Martinez 100GJustin Maxwell 38GFernando Martinez 31G
RFBrian Bogusevic 104GJustin Maxwell 20GSteve Pearce 19G
SSJed Lowrie 93GMarwin Gonzalez 47GTyler Greene 43G
2BJose Altuve 147GTyler Greene 59GMarwin Gonzalez 6G
3BMatt Dominguez 31GScott Moore 28GMatt Downs 18G
1BBrett Wallace 58GMatt Downs 25GScott Moore 19G
STARTERSLucas Harrell 2.7WARBud Norris 1.5WARJordan Lyles 1.0WARÉdgar González 0.3WARFernando Abad 0.2WAR
CJason Castro 79GChris Snyder 72GCarlos Corporán 24G
DHJ.D. Martinez 5GCarlos Lee 1G
BULLPEN★ Wilton Lopez 10svWesley Wright 19hFernando Rodriguez Jr. 13hFrancisco Cordero 6hXavier Cedeño 6hMickey Storey 3hC.J. Fick 2hRhiner Cruz 0h
CJason Castro 79 · Chris Snyder 72 · Carlos Corporán 24
1BBrett Wallace 58 · Matt Downs 25 · Scott Moore 19
2BJose Altuve 147 · Tyler Greene 59 · Marwin Gonzalez 6
3BMatt Dominguez 31 · Scott Moore 28 · Matt Downs 18
SSJed Lowrie 93 · Marwin Gonzalez 47 · Tyler Greene 43
LFJ.D. Martinez 100 · Justin Maxwell 38 · Fernando Martinez 31
CFJordan Schafer 87 · Justin Maxwell 59 · Brandon Barnes 32
RFBrian Bogusevic 104 · Justin Maxwell 20 · Steve Pearce 19
DHJ.D. Martinez 5 · Carlos Lee 1
SPLucas Harrell 2.7 · Bud Norris 1.5 · Jordan Lyles 1.0 · Édgar González 0.3 · Fernando Abad 0.2
BP★ Wilton Lopez 10 · Wesley Wright 19 · Fernando Rodriguez Jr. 13 · Francisco Cordero 6 · Xavier Cedeño 6 · Mickey Storey 3 · C.J. Fick 2 · Rhiner Cruz 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2012 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Lucas Harrell 27 pre-arb 352.7 0.5 +6.4
Jed Lowrie 28 arb 972.4 1.1 +5.2
Jose Altuve 22 pre-arb 1472.0 0.5 +4.5
Justin Maxwell 28 – 1241.9 – –
Wandy Rodriguez↔ PIT 33 FA-elig 211.6 6.2 -2.0
Bud Norris 27 arb 301.5 0.5 +3.3
Wilton Lopez 28 arb 641.3 0.5 +2.9
Jordan Lyles 21 pre-arb 261.0 0.5 +2.0
Carlos Corporán 28 pre-arb 270.9 0.5 +2.0
Carlos Lee↔ MIA 36 FA-elig 660.8 8.4 -6.4
Chris Johnson↔ ARI 27 arb 920.7 0.3 +1.4
J.A. Happ↔ TOR 29 arb 220.7 1.6 +0.1
Scott Moore 28 pre-arb 720.7 0.5 +1.2
Mickey Storey 26 – 260.5 0.5 +0.8
Wesley Wright 27 arb 780.5 0.5 +0.7
Brandon Lyon↔ TOR 32 FA-elig 370.4 3.0 -2.0
Tyler Greene↔ STL 28 arb 390.4 0.2 +0.8
Jason Castro 25 pre-arb 870.4 0.5 +0.4
Xavier Cedeño 25 pre-arb 440.3 0.5 +0.4
Hector Ambriz 28 pre-arb 180.3 0.5 +0.3
Matt Dominguez 22 pre-arb 310.3 0.5 +0.3
Chris Snyder 31 FA-elig 760.3 0.8 -0.0
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. 28 arb 710.3 0.5 +0.2
Edgar Gonzalez 29 arb 60.3 0.5 +0.2
Fernando Abad 26 pre-arb 370.2 0.5 -0.1
Fernando Martinez 23 pre-arb 410.2 0.5 -0.1
Brandon Laird 24 pre-arb 170.1 0.5 -0.3
Travis Buck 28 arb 330.0 0.6 -0.5
Enerio Del Rosario 26 – 190.0 0.5 -0.4
Jose G. Valdez 29 – 120.0 – –
Brandon Barnes 26 – 430.0 0.5 -0.5
Brett Myers↔ CHW 31 FA-elig 35-0.0 5.5 -5.5
Aneury Rodriguez 24 – 1-0.0 – –
David Carpenter↔ TOR 26 pre-arb 31-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Brian Bixler 29 – 36-0.0 – –
Brett Wallace 25 pre-arb 66-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Ben Francisco↔ TBR 30 arb 31-0.1 0.6 -1.0
Steve Pearce↔ BAL 29 – 21-0.2 – –
J.D. Martinez 24 pre-arb 113-0.3 0.5 -1.3
Kyle Weiland 25 pre-arb 4-0.3 0.5 -1.3
Matt Downs 28 arb 91-0.4 0.5 -1.4
Francisco Cordero↔ TOR 37 FA-elig 6-0.4 0.6 -1.5
Rhiner Cruz 25 pre-arb 52-0.4 0.5 -1.5
Jordan Schafer 25 arb 106-0.4 0.5 -1.6
Brian Bogusevic 28 pre-arb 146-0.5 0.5 -1.7
C.J. Fick↔ STL 26 – 18-0.5 – –
Marwin Gonzalez 23 pre-arb 80-0.6 0.5 -2.0
Dallas Keuchel 24 – 17-0.6 0.5 -2.1
Armando Galarraga 30 – 5-0.7 – –
Jimmy Paredes 23 pre-arb 24-0.8 0.5 -2.6

Key additions (new vs 2011)

PlayerfWAR
Jed Lowrie2.4
Justin Maxwell1.9
Scott Moore0.7
Mickey Storey0.5
Tyler Greene0.4
Jason Castro0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2011)

Player2011 fWAR
Clint Barmes2.7
Michael Bourn2.7
Hunter Pence1.9
Jason Bourgeois1.0
Mark Melancon0.8
Jeff Keppinger0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2012 payroll
$43.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2012, 2012–2018. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Carlos Lee3612.150$8.4MFREE AGENT
Wandy Rodriguez336.105$6.2MFREE AGENT
Brett Myers319.068$5.5MFREE AGENT
Brandon Lyon329.142$3.0MFREE AGENT
Chris Snyder317.047$750kFREE AGENT
Francisco Cordero3712.046$574kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
J.A. Happ293.047$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jed Lowrie283.111$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Francisco304.049$581kARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Buck283.048$580kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Rodriguez Jr.283.000$492kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edgar Gonzalez293.148$480kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Bixler294.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Armando Galarraga303.148—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Pearce295.000—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (35)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Wilton Lopez282.038$516kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wesley Wright272.105$512kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bud Norris272.068$511kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Schafer251.121$489kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Downs282.094$488kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Castro251.104$486kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Abad260.147$485kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Bogusevic280.146$483kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.D. Martinez240.061$483kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Altuve220.072$483kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Laird240.037$482kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Harrell272.083$482kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Weiland250.040$482kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Moore281.071$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Corporán280.126$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Martinez231.073$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mickey Storey260.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hector Ambriz281.000$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rhiner Cruz251.000$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xavier Cedeño250.018$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Enerio Del Rosario262.000$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Barnes260.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Wallace251.043$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Lyles210.080$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Dominguez222.062$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marwin Gonzalez230.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Paredes232.059$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dallas Keuchel240.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Carpenter260.092$442kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Johnson271.144$335kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Greene281.097$162kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aneury Rodriguez242.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose G. Valdez29–—
Justin Maxwell281.066—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
C.J. Fick26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 2012; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.