RRosternomics
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Astros HOU

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GM: Jeff Luhnow

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.73× league · TAB +12.4
+12.4TAB — talent above budget3rd/30
+6.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)5th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars9th/30
-4.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag14th/30
33%dead money %12th/30
0.519win %14th/30
42.8roster fWAR4th/30
+47surplus $M (value vs cost)2nd/30
$92Mpayroll $M19th/30

Roster

CFJake Marisnick 74GColby Rasmus 21GTeoscar Hernández 15G
LFColby Rasmus 87GTony Kemp 37GJake Marisnick 26G
RFGeorge Springer 147GColby Rasmus 11GTeoscar Hernández 6G
SSCarlos Correa 153GMarwin Gonzalez 11GAlex Bregman 6G
2BJose Altuve 148GMarwin Gonzalez 14GDanny Worth 6G
3BLuis Valbuena 81GAlex Bregman 40GMarwin Gonzalez 22G
1BMarwin Gonzalez 92GTyler White 58GAJ Reed 35G
STARTERSChris Devenski 2.7WARCollin McHugh 2.6WARDallas Keuchel 2.4WARLance McCullers Jr. 1.9WARMike Fiers 1.5WAR
CJason Castro 111GEvan Gattis 55GMax Stassi 8G
DHEvan Gattis 71GPreston Tucker 22GTyler White 14G
BULLPEN★ Luke Gregerson 15svWill Harris 28hKen Giles 18hPat Neshek 18hTony Sipp 12hMichael Feliz 5hJames Hoyt 1hJandel Gustave 0h
CJason Castro 111 · Evan Gattis 55 · Max Stassi 8
1BMarwin Gonzalez 92 · Tyler White 58 · AJ Reed 35
2BJose Altuve 148 · Marwin Gonzalez 14 · Danny Worth 6
3BLuis Valbuena 81 · Alex Bregman 40 · Marwin Gonzalez 22
SSCarlos Correa 153 · Marwin Gonzalez 11 · Alex Bregman 6
LFColby Rasmus 87 · Tony Kemp 37 · Jake Marisnick 26
CFJake Marisnick 74 · Colby Rasmus 21 · Teoscar Hernández 15
RFGeorge Springer 147 · Colby Rasmus 11 · Teoscar Hernández 6
DHEvan Gattis 71 · Preston Tucker 22 · Tyler White 14
SPChris Devenski 2.7 · Collin McHugh 2.6 · Dallas Keuchel 2.4 · Lance McCullers Jr. 1.9 · Mike Fiers 1.5
BP★ Luke Gregerson 15 · Will Harris 28 · Ken Giles 18 · Pat Neshek 18 · Tony Sipp 12 · Michael Feliz 5 · James Hoyt 1 · Jandel Gustave 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2016 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jose Altuve 26 arb 1617.2 3.5 +19.8
George Springer 26 pre-arb 1624.5 0.5 +14.0
Carlos Correa 21 pre-arb 1534.1 0.5 +12.8
Evan Gattis 29 arb 1283.2 3.2 +7.2
Jason Castro 29 FA-elig 1132.9 5.0 +4.4
Chris Devenski 25 – 482.7 0.5 +8.4
Collin McHugh 29 arb 332.6 0.5 +8.0
Dallas Keuchel 28 arb 262.4 7.2 +0.4
Lance McCullers Jr. 22 pre-arb 141.9 0.5 +5.8
Luis Valbuena 30 FA-elig 901.9 6.1 +0.1
Will Harris 31 arb 661.7 0.5 +5.0
Mike Fiers 31 arb 311.5 0.5 +4.5
Ken Giles 25 pre-arb 691.4 0.5 +3.9
Alex Bregman 22 – 491.3 0.2 +4.1
Marwin Gonzalez 27 arb 1411.2 2.0 +1.8
Luke Gregerson 32 FA-elig 591.1 6.2 -2.6
Jake Marisnick 25 arb 1181.0 0.5 +2.7
Colby Rasmus 29 FA-elig 1071.0 15.8 -12.7
Doug Fister 32 FA-elig 320.7 7.0 -4.7
Joe Musgrove 23 – 110.7 0.2 +2.1
Michael Feliz 23 pre-arb 470.7 0.5 +1.7
Pat Neshek 35 FA-elig 600.5 6.5 -5.0
Yuli Gurriel 32 pre-arb 360.3 1.9 -0.9
Scott Feldman↔ TOR 33 FA-elig 260.2 5.2 -4.5
Josh Fields↔ LAD 30 arb 150.2 0.4 +0.2
Jandel Gustave 23 – 140.1 0.1 +0.2
Teoscar Hernández 23 – 410.1 0.1 +0.1
Kevin Chapman 28 pre-arb 90.1 0.1 +0.2
David Paulino 22 pre-arb 30.0 0.1 -0.1
Tyler White 25 pre-arb 86-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Brady Rodgers 25 – 5-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Danny Worth 30 pre-arb 16-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Brad Peacock 28 pre-arb 10-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Matt Duffy 27 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Tony Kemp 24 – 59-0.1 0.3 -0.5
James Hoyt 29 – 22-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Max Stassi 25 arb 9-0.3 0.5 -1.4
Colin Moran 23 – 9-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Erik Kratz↔ PIT 36 FA-elig 15-0.4 0.4 -1.7
Carlos Gómez↔ TEX 30 FA-elig 85-0.6 6.5 -8.5
AJ Reed 23 pre-arb 45-0.7 0.2 -2.5
Tony Sipp 32 FA-elig 60-0.8 6.0 -8.7
Preston Tucker 25 pre-arb 48-0.9 0.5 -3.4

Key additions (new vs 2015)

PlayerfWAR
Chris Devenski2.7
Ken Giles1.4
Alex Bregman1.3
Doug Fister0.7
Joe Musgrove0.7
Yuli Gurriel0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2015)

Player2015 fWAR
Jed Lowrie1.1
Vince Velasquez0.9
Hank Conger0.9
Brett Oberholtzer0.3
Chris Carter0.3
Joe Thatcher0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2016 payroll
$91.9M
2017 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2016, 2016–2022. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2016; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Colby Rasmus297.000$15.8MFREE AGENT
Doug Fister326.058$7.0MFREE AGENT
Pat Neshek357.159$6.5MFREE AGENT
Carlos Gómez308.141$6.5MFREE AGENT
Luke Gregerson327.000$6.2MFREE AGENT
Tony Sipp326.100$6.0MFREE AGENT
Scott Feldman339.091$5.2MFREE AGENT
Erik Kratz366.000$386kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Dallas Keuchel283.089$7.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Valbuena305.148$6.1MFREE AGENT
Jason Castro295.104$5.0MFREE AGENT
Jose Altuve264.072$3.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Gattis293.000$3.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marwin Gonzalez273.133$2.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Fiers315.000$524kFREE AGENT
Josh Fields303.000$365kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (27)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Yuli Gurriel320.000$1.9MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Collin McHugh292.084$529kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ken Giles251.113$528kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Harris312.102$526kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
George Springer261.166$522kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Marisnick251.145$520kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Correa210.119$517kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lance McCullers Jr.221.000$517kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Preston Tucker250.150$515kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Duffy271.000$510kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Max Stassi250.105$508kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler White250.000$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Devenski250.000$496kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Feliz230.038$455kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Kemp240.000$269kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
AJ Reed230.110$244kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Bregman220.000$194kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Musgrove230.000$175kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Teoscar Hernández230.000$144kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Hoyt290.000$130kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Peacock282.124$114kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Worth302.049$114kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jandel Gustave230.000$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colin Moran230.000$86kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brady Rodgers250.000$86kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Chapman280.128$80kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Paulino220.144$75kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 2016; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.