SDP⇄HOU

SDPSDP Josh Byrnes net +$5.6M net +1.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2014 odds 1% → 2% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Patrick SchusterP·23y·R/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#396 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Jeff Luhnow net −$5.6M net -1.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $21M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 1.0 ± 3 expected · -1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2014 odds 2% → 2% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Anthony BassP·26y·R/R

+$2.4M+$2.4M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized -1.0

Prior

#165 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.25/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.