HOU⇄KCR

HOUHOU Jeff Luhnow net +$2.4M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2013 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kyle Smith

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Dayton Moore net −$2.4M net -0.1

received +$22.4M+$22.4M ± $31M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 4.1 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2013 odds 21% → 24% (+2.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Justin MaxwellOF·29y·R/R

+$22.0M+$22.0M± $31M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 4.1± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

1.11/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.