TOR⇄HOU

TORTOR Mark Shapiro net +$5.6M net +0.4

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $26M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.2 ± 3 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2019 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Derek FisherOF·25y·L/R

−$3.4M−$3.4M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#37 overall draft pick → 0.24/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.03/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Jeff Luhnow net −$5.6M net -0.4

received +$14.4M+$14.4M ± $29M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 3.7 ± 4 expected · -0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2019 odds 100% → 100% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Aaron SanchezP·26y·R/R

+$10.3M+$10.3M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.26/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.87/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Joe BiaginiP·29y·R/R

+$2.1M+$2.1M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.8± 2 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.30/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.85 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Cal StevensonOF·22y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#296 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.