TBR⇄HOU

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$0.8M net +0.2

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $28M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.4 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Peyton BattenfieldP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#286 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Cal StevensonOF·23y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#296 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Jeff Luhnow net −$0.8M net -0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $8M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Austin PruittP·30y·R/R

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#278 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.31/yr blended

Horizon

4.4 control yrs × 0.37 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.