ANA⇄HOU

ANAANA Billy Eppler net +$44.0M net +6.8

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$37.6M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 8.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2018 odds 13% → 11% (-1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Patrick SandovalP·21y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$37.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 8.9

Prior

#319 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Jeff Luhnow net −$44.0M net -6.8

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $10M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 1.8 ± 1 expected · 2.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2018 odds 99% → 99% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Martín MaldonadoC·31y·R/R

+$6.6M+$6.6M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 1.8± 1 exp WARrealized 2.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.9/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

1.82/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.