RRosternomics
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Astros HOU

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GM: Jeff Luhnow

Overview

REBUILD → steady
cheap & losing · year 4 in this regime · payroll 0.22× league · TAB -11.3
-11.3TAB — talent above budget27th/30
-11.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)26th/30
1.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars30th/30
-11.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag30th/30
67%dead money %29th/30
0.315win %30th/30
3.9roster fWAR30th/30
-9surplus $M (value vs cost)17th/30
$22Mpayroll $M30th/30

Roster

CFBrandon Barnes 116GRobbie Grossman 29GTrevor Crowe 14G
LFJ.D. Martinez 50GChris Carter 49GRobbie Grossman 45G
RFL.J. Hoes 44GJimmy Paredes 39GJ.D. Martinez 25G
SSJonathan Villar 58GMarwin Gonzalez 53GJake Elmore 20G
2BJose Altuve 145GJake Elmore 12GMarwin Gonzalez 10G
3BMatt Dominguez 149GBrett Wallace 9GBrandon Laird 4G
1BChris Carter 61GBrett Wallace 61GBrandon Laird 13G
STARTERSBrett Oberholtzer 1.3WARErik Bedard 1.3WARDallas Keuchel 1.0WARJarred Cosart 0.4WARJordan Lyles 0.4WAR
CJason Castro 98GCarlos Corporán 57GCody Clark 16G
DHChris Carter 47GCarlos Pena 38GJason Castro 18G
BULLPEN★ Josh Fields 5svHector Ambriz 13hJosh Zeid 6hJosé Cisnero 5hKevin Chapman 4hRhiner Cruz 1hChia-Jen Lo 1hJorge De Leon 1h
CJason Castro 98 · Carlos Corporán 57 · Cody Clark 16
1BChris Carter 61 · Brett Wallace 61 · Brandon Laird 13
2BJose Altuve 145 · Jake Elmore 12 · Marwin Gonzalez 10
3BMatt Dominguez 149 · Brett Wallace 9 · Brandon Laird 4
SSJonathan Villar 58 · Marwin Gonzalez 53 · Jake Elmore 20
LFJ.D. Martinez 50 · Chris Carter 49 · Robbie Grossman 45
CFBrandon Barnes 116 · Robbie Grossman 29 · Trevor Crowe 14
RFL.J. Hoes 44 · Jimmy Paredes 39 · J.D. Martinez 25
DHChris Carter 47 · Carlos Pena 38 · Jason Castro 18
SPBrett Oberholtzer 1.3 · Erik Bedard 1.3 · Dallas Keuchel 1.0 · Jarred Cosart 0.4 · Jordan Lyles 0.4
BP★ Josh Fields 5 · Hector Ambriz 13 · Josh Zeid 6 · José Cisnero 5 · Kevin Chapman 4 · Rhiner Cruz 1 · Chia-Jen Lo 1 · Jorge De Leon 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2013 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jason Castro 26 arb 1203.8 0.5 +9.6
Bud Norris↔ BAL 28 arb 211.9 2.0 +3.1
Erik Bedard 34 FA-elig 321.3 1.1 +2.4
Brett Oberholtzer 23 – 131.3 0.2 +3.1
Dallas Keuchel 25 pre-arb 331.0 0.4 +2.3
Carlos Corporán 29 arb 640.9 0.5 +1.9
Brandon Barnes 27 pre-arb 1360.9 0.5 +1.8
Matt Dominguez 23 pre-arb 1520.8 0.5 +1.6
Jose Veras↔ DET 32 FA-elig 420.6 1.2 +0.4
Chris Carter 26 arb 1480.5 0.5 +0.9
Jose Altuve 23 pre-arb 1520.5 0.5 +0.8
Jarred Cosart 23 arb 100.4 0.2 +0.9
Jordan Lyles 22 pre-arb 270.4 0.4 +0.6
Robbie Grossman 23 – 630.3 0.3 +0.6
Brett Wallace 26 arb 790.3 0.5 +0.3
Brad Peacock 25 pre-arb 180.1 0.5 -0.1
Justin Maxwell↔ KCR 29 FA-elig 400.1 0.3 +0.1
David Martinez 25 – 40.0 0.1 +0.0
L.J. Hoes↔ BAL 23 pre-arb 460.0 0.2 -0.1
Josh Zeid 26 – 250.0 0.2 -0.1
Kevin Chapman 25 – 25-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Wesley Wright↔ TBR 28 arb 55-0.0 0.8 -0.8
Rick Ankiel↔ NYM 33 FA-elig 25-0.0 0.4 -0.5
José Cisnero 24 – 28-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Max Stassi 22 – 3-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Chia-Jen Lo 27 – 19-0.1 – –
Rhiner Cruz 26 pre-arb 20-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Xavier Cedeño↔ WSN 26 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Jorge De Leon 25 – 11-0.1 – –
Wade LeBlanc↔ MIA 28 arb 4-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Marc Krauss 25 pre-arb 52-0.2 0.2 -0.6
Brandon Laird 25 – 25-0.2 – –
Philip Humber 30 FA-elig 17-0.2 0.8 -1.3
Josh Fields 27 pre-arb 42-0.3 0.5 -1.3
Matt Pagnozzi 30 – 9-0.3 – –
Trevor Crowe 29 pre-arb 60-0.3 0.4 -1.3
Cody Clark 31 – 16-0.3 – –
Edgar Gonzalez↔ TOR 30 – 5-0.3 0.0 -0.9
Carlos Pena↔ KCR 35 FA-elig 85-0.4 2.8 -3.8
Fernando Martinez 24 arb 11-0.4 0.5 -1.5
Marwin Gonzalez 24 pre-arb 72-0.4 0.5 -1.5
Jonathan Villar 22 – 58-0.4 0.2 -1.2
Jake Elmore 26 pre-arb 52-0.5 0.3 -1.7
Ronny Cedeno↔ SDP 30 FA-elig 51-0.7 0.7 -2.5
Lucas Harrell 28 arb 37-0.8 0.5 -2.5
Hector Ambriz 29 arb 43-0.8 0.5 -2.6
J.D. Martinez 25 pre-arb 86-0.9 0.5 -2.9
Paul Clemens 25 – 35-0.9 0.4 -2.8
Travis Blackley↔ TEX 30 FA-elig 42-1.2 0.5 -3.7
Jimmy Paredes 24 pre-arb 48-1.2 0.2 -3.5

Key additions (new vs 2012)

PlayerfWAR
Erik Bedard1.3
Brett Oberholtzer1.3
Jose Veras0.6
Chris Carter0.5
Jarred Cosart0.4
Robbie Grossman0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2012)

Player2012 fWAR
Jed Lowrie2.4
Wilton Lopez1.3
Carlos Lee0.8
Chris Johnson0.7
J.A. Happ0.7
Scott Moore0.7

Current & Historical Payroll

2013 payroll
$22.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2013, 2013–2019. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (4)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Carlos Pena359.133$2.8MFREE AGENT
Erik Bedard349.146$1.1MFREE AGENT
Ronny Cedeno307.029$659kFREE AGENT
Rick Ankiel3314.000$417kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Bud Norris283.068$2.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Veras325.128$1.2MFREE AGENT
Philip Humber303.000$800kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wesley Wright283.105$794kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarred Cosart233.113$187kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edgar Gonzalez304.148$5kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (40)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Jose Altuve231.072$506kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Blackley302.026$502kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Harrell282.083$501kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rhiner Cruz261.000$498kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.D. Martinez251.047$498kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Castro262.104$497kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Wallace261.123$495kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Corporán291.019$495kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marwin Gonzalez241.000$494kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Carter261.159$494kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hector Ambriz291.043$493kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Martinez241.073$493kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Dominguez232.062$492kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Barnes270.058$492kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Fields270.000$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Peacock250.023$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dallas Keuchel250.089$444kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Lyles221.080$404kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Crowe292.091$396kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Clemens252.128$386kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Cisnero240.000$287kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Elmore260.054$270kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robbie Grossman230.000$265kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Maxwell292.066$263kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marc Krauss251.108$228kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Oberholtzer230.000$220kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Paredes242.059$217kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Villar220.000$187kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Zeid260.000$169kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
L.J. Hoes230.023$162kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xavier Cedeño260.122$155kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Chapman250.000$139kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wade LeBlanc282.062$116kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Max Stassi220.000$110kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Martinez25–$80k
Matt Pagnozzi30–—
Cody Clark31–—
Brandon Laird251.037—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge De Leon25–—
Chia-Jen Lo27–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 2013; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.