RRosternomics
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Astros HOU

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GM: Jeff Luhnow

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.09× league · TAB +20.4
+20.4TAB — talent above budget2nd/30
+17.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)2nd/30
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-2.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag3rd/30
32%dead money %12th/30
0.623win %3rd/30
55.8roster fWAR2nd/30
+46surplus $M (value vs cost)4th/30
$142Mpayroll $M16th/30

2017: World Series champions · 101–61. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJake Marisnick 93GGeorge Springer 84GCameron Maybin 57G
LFCameron Maybin 50GJosh Reddick 48GMarwin Gonzalez 47G
RFJosh Reddick 102GGeorge Springer 78GDerek Fisher 12G
SSCarlos Correa 108GMarwin Gonzalez 38GAlex Bregman 30G
2BJose Altuve 149GMarwin Gonzalez 22GAlex Bregman 4G
3BAlex Bregman 132GJ.D. Davis 22GMarwin Gonzalez 19G
1BYuli Gurriel 131GMarwin Gonzalez 31GTyler White 19G
STARTERSBrad Peacock 3.4WARCharlie Morton 3.1WARLance McCullers Jr. 2.8WARDallas Keuchel 2.2WARCollin McHugh 1.1WAR
CBrian McCann 95GEvan Gattis 49GJuan Centeno 22G
DHCarlos Beltrán 107GEvan Gattis 29GGeorge Springer 7G
BULLPEN★ Ken Giles 34svChris Devenski 25hWill Harris 20hLuke Gregerson 18hTyler Clippard 9hJames Hoyt 7hTony Sipp 4hMichael Feliz 2h
CBrian McCann 95 · Evan Gattis 49 · Juan Centeno 22
1BYuli Gurriel 131 · Marwin Gonzalez 31 · Tyler White 19
2BJose Altuve 149 · Marwin Gonzalez 22 · Alex Bregman 4
3BAlex Bregman 132 · J.D. Davis 22 · Marwin Gonzalez 19
SSCarlos Correa 108 · Marwin Gonzalez 38 · Alex Bregman 30
LFCameron Maybin 50 · Josh Reddick 48 · Marwin Gonzalez 47
CFJake Marisnick 93 · George Springer 84 · Cameron Maybin 57
RFJosh Reddick 102 · George Springer 78 · Derek Fisher 12
DHCarlos Beltrán 107 · Evan Gattis 29 · George Springer 7
SPBrad Peacock 3.4 · Charlie Morton 3.1 · Lance McCullers Jr. 2.8 · Dallas Keuchel 2.2 · Collin McHugh 1.1
BP★ Ken Giles 34 · Chris Devenski 25 · Will Harris 20 · Luke Gregerson 18 · Tyler Clippard 9 · James Hoyt 7 · Tony Sipp 4 · Michael Feliz 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2017 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jose Altuve 27 FA-elig 1537.7 4.5 +21.5
Carlos Correa 22 pre-arb 1094.9 0.5 +16.0
Alex Bregman 23 pre-arb 1554.7 0.5 +15.3
George Springer 27 arb 1404.4 3.9 +10.9
Marwin Gonzalez 28 arb 1344.4 3.7 +11.1
Josh Reddick 30 FA-elig 1343.8 13.0 -0.2
Brad Peacock 29 FA-elig 343.4 0.5 +10.8
Charlie Morton 33 FA-elig 253.1 7.0 +3.4
Lance McCullers Jr. 23 pre-arb 222.8 0.5 +8.9
Brian McCann 33 FA-elig 972.5 17.0 -8.6
Dallas Keuchel 29 arb 232.2 9.2 -1.6
Yuli Gurriel 33 pre-arb 1392.0 14.4 -7.7
Jake Marisnick 26 arb 1061.9 1.1 +5.5
Ken Giles 26 arb 631.8 0.6 +5.5
Chris Devenski 26 pre-arb 621.3 0.6 +3.8
Evan Gattis 30 arb 841.2 5.2 -1.0
Collin McHugh 30 arb 121.1 3.9 -0.3
Justin Verlander↔ DET 34 FA-elig 51.0 4.2 -0.7
Joe Musgrove 24 pre-arb 380.9 0.5 +2.4
Will Harris 32 arb 460.8 2.2 +0.5
Norichika Aoki↔ NYM 35 arb 710.5 3.5 -1.8
James Hoyt 30 pre-arb 430.5 0.4 +1.3
Michael Feliz 24 pre-arb 460.4 0.5 +0.7
Francis Martes 21 – 320.2 0.3 +0.5
Colin Moran 24 pre-arb 70.2 0.2 +0.5
J.D. Davis 24 – 250.2 0.2 +0.5
Max Stassi 26 pre-arb 140.2 0.1 +0.5
David Paulino 23 pre-arb 60.1 0.5 -0.1
Tyler White 26 pre-arb 220.1 0.1 +0.3
Francisco Liriano↔ TOR 33 FA-elig 200.0 7.2 -7.1
Dayan Díaz 28 – 100.0 0.1 +0.0
Derek Fisher 23 – 530.0 0.2 -0.1
Reymin Guduan 25 – 220.0 0.2 -0.1
Ashur Tolliver 29 – 30.0 0.0 +0.0
Mike Fiers 32 FA-elig 30-0.0 3.5 -3.6
Jandel Gustave 24 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Tyler Clippard↔ CHW 32 FA-elig 16-0.1 1.5 -1.7
Cameron Maybin↔ ANA 30 FA-elig 21-0.1 1.7 -1.9
Teoscar Hernández↔ TOR 24 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Luke Gregerson 33 FA-elig 65-0.1 6.2 -6.6
AJ Reed 24 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Tony Sipp 33 FA-elig 46-0.2 6.0 -6.7
Jordan Jankowski 28 – 3-0.2 0.0 -0.8
Juan Centeno 27 pre-arb 22-0.2 0.2 -0.9
Tony Kemp 25 pre-arb 17-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Carlos Beltrán 40 FA-elig 129-1.2 16.0 -20.1

Key additions (new vs 2016)

PlayerfWAR
Josh Reddick3.8
Charlie Morton3.1
Brian McCann2.5
Justin Verlander1.0
Norichika Aoki0.5
Francis Martes0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2016)

Player2016 fWAR
Jason Castro2.9
Luis Valbuena1.9
Colby Rasmus1.0
Doug Fister0.7
Pat Neshek0.5
Scott Feldman0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2017 payroll
$142.5M
2018 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2017, 2017–2023. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2017; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Brian McCann3311.117$17.0MFREE AGENT
Carlos Beltrán4018.014$16.0MFREE AGENT
Josh Reddick306.050$13.0MFREE AGENT
Francisco Liriano3310.104$7.2MFREE AGENT
Charlie Morton338.009$7.0MFREE AGENT
Luke Gregerson338.000$6.2MFREE AGENT
Tony Sipp337.100$6.0MFREE AGENT
Justin Verlander3411.002$4.2MFREE AGENT
Mike Fiers326.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Cameron Maybin307.073$1.7MFREE AGENT
Tyler Clippard327.148$1.5MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Dallas Keuchel294.089$9.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Gattis304.000$5.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Altuve275.072$4.5MFREE AGENT
Collin McHugh303.084$3.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marwin Gonzalez284.133$3.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Norichika Aoki355.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Will Harris323.102$2.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Yuli Gurriel331.000$14.4MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
George Springer272.166$3.9MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Marisnick262.145$1.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Devenski261.000$554kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ken Giles262.113$550kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lance McCullers Jr.232.000$548kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Feliz241.038$546kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Musgrove240.063$543kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Peacock292.165$542kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Bregman230.070$539kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jandel Gustave240.036$537kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Paulino230.144$536kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Correa221.119$535kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Hoyt300.061$421kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francis Martes210.000$339kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colin Moran240.031$222kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Fisher230.000$216kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reymin Guduan250.000$196kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.D. Davis240.000$170kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Centeno271.083$170kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Max Stassi261.000$143kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler White260.130$134kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Kemp250.097$102kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dayan Díaz280.054$79kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Jankowski28–$32k
AJ Reed240.110$18kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ashur Tolliver290.014$15kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Teoscar Hernández240.052$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 2017; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.