TEX⇄HOU

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net +$2.4M net +0.3

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $22M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 1.5 ± 3 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2013 odds 45% → 46% (+1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Travis BlackleyP·30y·L/L

+$9.2M+$9.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 1.5± 3 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.60/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.63 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Jeff Luhnow net −$2.4M net -0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2013 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.