TBR⇄BAL

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$6.4M net +1.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $7M expected surplus · +$6.4M realized received 0.9 ± 1 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2025 odds 7% → 8% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bryan BakerP·30y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 0.9± 1 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.43/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.50 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Mike Elias net −$6.4M net -1.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2025 odds 2% → 2% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Draft pick (≈#70)

+$1.6M+$1.6M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#70 draft slot (traded pick) → 0.19/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.