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← Trade Database
July 30, 2024

BAL⇄MIA

unsettledToo soon to call — players still accruing.
BALBAL Mike Elias net +$16.8M net +0.5
received +$28.0M+$28.0M ± $32M expected surplus · +$63.2M realized received 4.3 ± 4 expected · 6.1 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2024 odds 65% → 68% (+3.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Trevor RogersP·26y·L/L
+$28.2M+$28.2M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$63.2M 4.3± 4 exp WARrealized 6.1
Prior
#13 overall draft pick → 0.50/yr
Evidence
recent form 2.5/yr over 1.1 season
Talent
1.44/yr blended
Horizon
3.0 control yrs
MIAMIA Peter Bendix net −$16.8M net -0.5
received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $30M expected surplus · +$46.4M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 5.6 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2024 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Connor Norby3B·24y·R/R
+$1.6M+$1.6M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 1.0
Prior
Composite #93.0 prospect (Baseball America #93 (2023)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.23/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.23/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Kyle StowersOF·26y·L/L
−$4.5M−$4.5M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$43.2M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 4.6
Prior
#71 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form -1.1/yr over 0.2 season
Talent
-0.01/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Fan verdict — who overpaid?

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

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Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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