RRosternomics
𝕏

Orioles BAL

‹ ›

GM: Mike Elias

Overview

REBUILD → steady
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.63× league · TAB -16.6
-16.6TAB — talent above budget26th/30
-21.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)29th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars24th/30
-11.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag29th/30
79%dead money %30th/30
0.333win %29th/30
11.9roster fWAR28th/30
-40surplus $M (value vs cost)20th/30
$82Mpayroll $M25th/30

Roster

CFStevie Wilkerson 72GAnthony Santander 24GCedric Mullins 22G
LFDwight Smith Jr. 86GAnthony Santander 40GStevie Wilkerson 29G
RFTrey Mancini 87GAnthony Santander 50GDJ Stewart 26G
SSRichie Martin Jr. 117GJonathan Villar 97G
2BJonathan Villar 111GHanser Alberto 90GStevie Wilkerson 12G
3BRio Ruiz 114GHanser Alberto 66GJosé Rondon 13G
1BChris Davis 97GTrey Mancini 56GRenato Núñez 24G
STARTERSJohn Means 3.3WARDylan Bundy 2.6WARAsher Wojciechowski 1.0WARAaron Brooks 0.6WARTy Blach -0.1WAR
CPedro Severino 89GChance Sisco 52GAustin Wynns 25G
DHRenato Núñez 109GTrey Mancini 17GDwight Smith Jr. 7G
BULLPEN★ Mychal Givens 11svPaul Fry 11hMiguel Castro 9hShawn Armstrong 9hRichard Bleier 5hBranden Kline 5hJimmy Yacabonis 3hTanner Scott 2h
CPedro Severino 89 · Chance Sisco 52 · Austin Wynns 25
1BChris Davis 97 · Trey Mancini 56 · Renato Núñez 24
2BJonathan Villar 111 · Hanser Alberto 90 · Stevie Wilkerson 12
3BRio Ruiz 114 · Hanser Alberto 66 · José Rondon 13
SSRichie Martin Jr. 117 · Jonathan Villar 97
LFDwight Smith Jr. 86 · Anthony Santander 40 · Stevie Wilkerson 29
CFStevie Wilkerson 72 · Anthony Santander 24 · Cedric Mullins 22
RFTrey Mancini 87 · Anthony Santander 50 · DJ Stewart 26
DHRenato Núñez 109 · Trey Mancini 17 · Dwight Smith Jr. 7
SPJohn Means 3.3 · Dylan Bundy 2.6 · Asher Wojciechowski 1.0 · Aaron Brooks 0.6 · Ty Blach -0.1
BP★ Mychal Givens 11 · Paul Fry 11 · Miguel Castro 9 · Shawn Armstrong 9 · Richard Bleier 5 · Branden Kline 5 · Jimmy Yacabonis 3 · Tanner Scott 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2019 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Trey Mancini 27 arb 1543.5 0.6 +10.8
Jonathan Villar 28 FA-elig 1623.4 4.8 +6.5
John Means 26 pre-arb 313.3 0.6 +10.3
Dylan Bundy 26 FA-elig 302.6 2.8 +5.7
Hanser Alberto 26 arb 1392.0 0.6 +6.0
Andrew Cashner↔ BOS 32 FA-elig 171.9 3.8 +2.3
Asher Wojciechowski 30 pre-arb 171.0 0.3 +2.9
Shawn Armstrong↔ SEA 28 arb 510.8 0.5 +1.9
Austin Hays 23 pre-arb 210.7 0.1 +2.1
Mychal Givens 29 arb 580.6 2.1 -0.1
Richard Bleier 32 arb 530.6 0.6 +1.4
Aaron Brooks↔ OAK 29 arb 140.6 0.3 +1.6
Anthony Santander 24 pre-arb 930.6 0.3 +1.5
Miguel Castro 24 arb 650.5 0.6 +1.0
Evan Phillips 24 pre-arb 250.3 0.2 +0.9
Paul Fry 26 pre-arb 660.3 0.6 +0.5
Keon Broxton↔ NYM 29 arb 370.3 0.2 +0.7
Nate Karns 31 FA-elig 40.1 0.8 -0.4
Josh Lucas 28 – 90.1 0.2 +0.2
Hunter Harvey 24 pre-arb 70.1 0.1 +0.2
Mason Williams 27 pre-arb 110.1 0.1 +0.2
Tanner Scott 24 pre-arb 280.1 0.2 +0.0
Renato Núñez 25 arb 1510.1 0.6 -0.4
Pedro Severino 25 arb 960.1 0.6 -0.4
Dillon Tate 25 – 160.0 0.1 -0.1
José Rondon↔ CHW 25 arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Drew Jackson 25 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.6 -0.7
Joey Rickard↔ SFG 28 arb 42-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Chandler Shepherd 26 – 5-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Pedro Araújo 25 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.6 -0.8
Jace Peterson 29 arb 29-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Ty Blach↔ SFG 28 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Yefry Ramírez↔ PIT 25 – 5-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Sean Gilmartin 29 pre-arb 1-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Branden Kline 27 – 34-0.2 0.3 -0.9
Jesús Sucre 31 FA-elig 21-0.2 0.8 -1.4
Luis Ortiz 23 pre-arb 1-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Rio Ruiz 25 arb 127-0.2 0.6 -1.2
Matt Wotherspoon 27 – 2-0.2 0.0 -0.7
Ryan Eades↔ MIN 27 – 6-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Jimmy Yacabonis 27 pre-arb 29-0.2 0.6 -1.4
Mark Trumbo 33 FA-elig 12-0.3 13.5 -14.3
Mike Wright Jr.↔ SEA 29 arb 10-0.3 0.3 -1.2
Tayler Scott↔ SEA 27 – 8-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Austin Wynns 28 pre-arb 28-0.4 0.6 -1.8
Thomas Eshelman 25 – 10-0.4 0.1 -1.4
Gabriel Ynoa 26 pre-arb 36-0.4 0.5 -1.8
DJ Stewart 25 pre-arb 44-0.4 0.3 -1.7
Chance Sisco 24 pre-arb 59-0.4 0.4 -1.7
Josh Rogers 24 pre-arb 5-0.5 0.3 -1.8
Richie Martin Jr. 24 pre-arb 120-0.5 0.6 -2.1
Alex Cobb 31 FA-elig 3-0.6 14.0 -15.8
Dwight Smith Jr. 26 pre-arb 101-0.6 0.6 -2.4
Cedric Mullins 24 pre-arb 22-0.6 0.6 -2.4
David Hess 25 pre-arb 23-0.7 0.6 -2.9
Stevie Wilkerson 27 – 119-0.9 – –
Dan Straily 30 FA-elig 14-1.1 0.6 -4.1
Chris Davis 33 FA-elig 105-1.2 23.0 -27.1

Key additions (new vs 2018)

PlayerfWAR
Hanser Alberto2.0
Asher Wojciechowski1.0
Shawn Armstrong0.8
Austin Hays0.7
Aaron Brooks0.6
Keon Broxton0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2018)

Player2018 fWAR
Manny Machado4.5
Kevin Gausman1.5
Jonathan Schoop1.1
Craig Gentry0.7
Brad Brach0.4
Darren O'Day0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2019 payroll
$81.5M
2020 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2019, 2019–2025. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2019; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (4)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Chris Davis339.061$23.0MFREE AGENT
Alex Cobb317.061$14.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Trumbo338.027$13.5MFREE AGENT
Andrew Cashner328.126$3.8MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Jonathan Villar284.113$4.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Bundy263.026$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mychal Givens293.069$2.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesús Sucre314.137$850kARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Karns314.033$800kARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Straily304.126$575kARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Wright Jr.294.000$299kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jace Peterson294.033$119kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (46)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Hanser Alberto262.085$578kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trey Mancini272.015$576kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richard Bleier322.074$572kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Castro242.079$569kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Hess250.119$564kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Severino251.099$564kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Renato Núñez250.167$562kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dwight Smith Jr.262.000$560kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Yacabonis270.078$559kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Fry260.096$559kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rio Ruiz250.109$558kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Wynns280.102$558kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cedric Mullins240.052$558kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Araújo251.000$557kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Means260.007$556kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Jackson250.000$555kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richie Martin Jr.240.000$555kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Armstrong281.028$518kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gabriel Ynoa261.093$483kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chance Sisco240.156$355kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Rickard282.120$352kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Santander241.046$346kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Rogers240.034$322kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
DJ Stewart250.020$307kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Branden Kline270.000$280kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Brooks291.102$270kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Asher Wojciechowski301.066$269kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Phillips240.057$212kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keon Broxton292.038$212kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Scott240.166$191kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Lucas281.121$167kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dillon Tate250.000$140kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Harvey240.003$131kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thomas Eshelman250.000$101kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Eades27–$96k
Chandler Shepherd26–$93k
Mason Williams271.147$81kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Hays230.034$69kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tayler Scott270.000$59kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ty Blach282.032$53kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yefry Ramírez250.097$46kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Wotherspoon27–$21k
Sean Gilmartin291.124$15kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Rondon250.096$10kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Ortiz231.000$6kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stevie Wilkerson27–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2019; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.