WSN⇄BAL

WSNWSN Paul Toboni net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $28M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.5 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Kyle NicolasP·27y·R/R

+$2.5M+$2.5M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.5± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#61 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.67 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Mike Elias net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $55M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.1 ± 7 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Randal DiazSS·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $55M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 7 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#141 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.87 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± band is the uncertainty — wide for unproven prospects, tight for established veterans. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.