ATL⇄BAL

ATLATL Alex Anthopoulos net +$4.0M net +2.5

received +$60.0M+$54.4M ± $34M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 6.1 ± 4 expected · 2.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2018 odds 35% → 41% (+6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kevin GausmanP·27y·L/R

+$56.7M+$56.7M± $33M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 5.5± 4 exp WARrealized 1.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.53/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.5/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

1.84/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Darren O'DayP·35y·R/R

+$3.2M−$2.3M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

0.63/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Dan Duquette net −$4.0M net -2.5

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $38M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 3.9 ± 5 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2018 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brett CumberlandC·23y·S/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#76 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Evan PhillipsP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

#510 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Bruce ZimmermannP·23y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

#140 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

JC Encarnación

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.