ATL⇄BAL

ATLATL Alex Anthopoulos net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2025 odds 9% → 9% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Mike Elias net −$0.8M net -0.1

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $10M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2025 odds 2% → 2% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott BlewettP·29y·R/R

−$1.6M−$1.6M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#56 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.46 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.