CHW⇄BAL

CHWCHW Chris Getz net +$14.4M net +0.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2024 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Trey McGoughP·26y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#724 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Mike Elias net −$14.4M net -0.5

received +$5.6M+$4.8M ± $12M expected surplus · −$14.4M realized received 1.4 ± 2 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2024 odds 71% → 68% (-2.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eloy JiménezDH/OF·27y·R/R

+$5.5M+$4.7M± $12M exp surplusrealized −$14.4M 1.4± 2 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.95/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.