SFG⇄BAL

SFGSFG Farhan Zaidi net +$94.4M net +12.4

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $18M expected surplus · +$94.4M realized received 0.7 ± 2 expected · 12.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2019 odds 0% → 0% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike YastrzemskiOF·28y·L/L

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$94.4M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized 12.4

Prior

#429 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.64 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Mike Elias net −$94.4M net -12.4

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2019 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tyler HerbP·27y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#861 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.76 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.