RRosternomics
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Orioles BAL

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GM: Mike Elias

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.42× league · TAB +3.7
+3.7TAB — talent above budget
-3.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)
0.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars20th/30
-3.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag12th/30
64%dead money %25th/30
0.417win %25th/30
10.0roster fWAR20th/30
+24surplus $M (value vs cost)4th/30
$49Mpayroll $M28th/30

Roster

CFCedric Mullins 41GAustin Hays 23GMason Williams 4G
LFRyan Mountcastle 25GDwight Smith Jr. 16GAustin Hays 10G
RFAnthony Santander 35GDJ Stewart 21GCedric Mullins 4G
SSAndrew Velazquez 30GJose Iglesias 24GPat Valaika 24G
2BHanser Alberto 52GPat Valaika 13GRamón Urías 4G
3BRio Ruiz 53GHanser Alberto 5GPat Valaika 4G
1BRenato Núñez 28GChris Davis 15GPat Valaika 13G
STARTERSKeegan Akin 0.8WARAlex Cobb 0.6WARJohn Means 0.3WARJorge López 0.3WARAsher Wojciechowski -0.1WAR
CPedro Severino 35GChance Sisco 26GBryan Holaday 10G
DHRenato Núñez 21GJose Iglesias 14GPedro Severino 10G
BULLPEN★ Cole Sulser 5svTanner Scott 5hPaul Fry 5hShawn Armstrong 3hDillon Tate 2hEvan Phillips 2hTravis Lakins 1hThomas Eshelman 0h
CPedro Severino 35 · Chance Sisco 26 · Bryan Holaday 10
1BRenato Núñez 28 · Chris Davis 15 · Pat Valaika 13
2BHanser Alberto 52 · Pat Valaika 13 · Ramón Urías 4
3BRio Ruiz 53 · Hanser Alberto 5 · Pat Valaika 4
SSAndrew Velazquez 30 · Jose Iglesias 24 · Pat Valaika 24
LFRyan Mountcastle 25 · Dwight Smith Jr. 16 · Austin Hays 10
CFCedric Mullins 41 · Austin Hays 23 · Mason Williams 4
RFAnthony Santander 35 · DJ Stewart 21 · Cedric Mullins 4
DHRenato Núñez 21 · Jose Iglesias 14 · Pedro Severino 10
SPKeegan Akin 0.8 · Alex Cobb 0.6 · John Means 0.3 · Jorge López 0.3 · Asher Wojciechowski -0.1
BP★ Cole Sulser 5 · Tanner Scott 5 · Paul Fry 5 · Shawn Armstrong 3 · Dillon Tate 2 · Evan Phillips 2 · Travis Lakins 1 · Thomas Eshelman 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2020 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jose Iglesias 30 FA-elig 391.6 2.5 +9.3
Anthony Santander 25 pre-arb 371.3 0.2 +9.1
Keegan Akin 25 – 80.8 0.1 +5.8
Cedric Mullins 25 pre-arb 480.8 0.2 +5.5
Ryan Mountcastle 23 – 350.8 0.1 +5.4
Tommy Milone↔ ATL 33 FA-elig 60.7 0.1 +4.9
Dean Kremer 24 – 40.7 0.1 +4.8
Alex Cobb 32 FA-elig 100.6 14.0 -9.5
César Valdez 35 pre-arb 90.5 0.1 +3.7
DJ Stewart 26 pre-arb 310.4 0.1 +3.0
Travis Lakins 26 pre-arb 220.4 0.2 +2.9
Tanner Scott 25 pre-arb 250.4 0.2 +2.8
Austin Hays 24 pre-arb 330.4 0.2 +2.7
Mychal Givens↔ COL 30 arb 120.4 1.8 +1.0
Hanser Alberto 27 arb 540.4 1.6 +1.0
Rio Ruiz 26 pre-arb 540.3 0.2 +2.3
Paul Fry 27 pre-arb 220.3 0.2 +2.2
Jorge López↔ KCR 27 pre-arb 90.3 0.1 +2.1
John Means 27 pre-arb 100.3 0.2 +2.0
Shawn Armstrong 29 pre-arb 140.3 0.2 +1.8
Dillon Tate 26 pre-arb 120.3 0.2 +1.8
Miguel Castro↔ NYM 25 arb 160.3 0.6 +1.2
Renato Núñez 26 pre-arb 520.2 0.2 +1.3
Evan Phillips 25 pre-arb 140.2 0.1 +1.1
Branden Kline 28 pre-arb 30.1 0.0 +0.9
Cole Sulser 30 pre-arb 190.1 0.2 +0.6
Pat Valaika 27 pre-arb 520.1 0.2 +0.6
Richard Bleier↔ MIA 33 arb 20.1 0.1 +0.6
Carson Fulmer↔ DET 26 – 30.1 0.0 +0.6
Pedro Severino 26 pre-arb 480.0 0.2 -0.1
David Hess 26 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Thomas Eshelman 26 pre-arb 12-0.0 0.2 -0.4
Cody Carroll 27 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.0 -0.3
Wade LeBlanc 35 FA-elig 6-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Asher Wojciechowski 31 pre-arb 10-0.1 0.2 -0.7
Dilson Herrera 26 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.0 -0.6
Ramón Urías 26 – 10-0.1 0.1 -0.7
Hunter Harvey 25 pre-arb 10-0.1 0.2 -0.9
Bruce Zimmermann 25 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.8
Andrew Velazquez 25 pre-arb 40-0.2 0.2 -1.6
Bryan Holaday 32 arb 21-0.2 0.2 -2.0
Chance Sisco 25 pre-arb 36-0.4 0.2 -3.0
Mason Williams 28 – 10-0.4 0.1 -3.0
Dwight Smith Jr. 27 – 21-0.5 0.1 -3.7
Chris Davis 34 FA-elig 16-0.8 23.0 -28.8

Key additions (new vs 2019)

PlayerfWAR
Jose Iglesias1.6
Keegan Akin0.8
Ryan Mountcastle0.8
Tommy Milone0.7
Dean Kremer0.7
César Valdez0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2019)

Player2019 fWAR
Jonathan Villar3.4
Dylan Bundy2.6
Andrew Cashner1.9
Aaron Brooks0.6
Keon Broxton0.3
Nate Karns0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2020 payroll
$49.2M
2021 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2020, 2020–2026. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2020; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Chris Davis3410.061$23.0MFREE AGENT
Alex Cobb328.061$14.0MFREE AGENT
Jose Iglesias307.036$2.5MFREE AGENT
Tommy Milone336.113$140kFREE AGENT
Wade LeBlanc356.131$100kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Mychal Givens304.069$1.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Hanser Alberto273.085$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Castro253.079$646kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Holaday325.013$184kFREE AGENT
Dwight Smith Jr.273.000$95kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richard Bleier333.074$87kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (34)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
John Means271.007$215kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Renato Núñez261.167$214kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Severino262.099$213kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Armstrong292.028$212kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rio Ruiz261.109$212kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Santander251.161$212kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chance Sisco251.103$211kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Fry271.096$211kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Scott251.058$211kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Hays240.057$210kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Lakins260.054$210kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Harvey250.047$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dillon Tate260.048$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Sulser300.028$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Valaika272.079$209kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cedric Mullins250.078$190kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thomas Eshelman260.034$184kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Velazquez250.070$181kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Asher Wojciechowski311.156$178kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge López271.102$143kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
DJ Stewart260.123$129kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keegan Akin250.000$118kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Mountcastle230.000$118kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Phillips250.133$110kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
César Valdez350.143$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Hess261.068$87kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dean Kremer240.000$56kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mason Williams282.147$53kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramón Urías260.000$51kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bruce Zimmermann250.000$34kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Branden Kline280.094$31kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Carroll270.062$28kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dilson Herrera261.034$25kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carson Fulmer261.040$25kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2020; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.