RRosternomics
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Orioles BAL

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GM: Mike Elias

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.27× league · TAB +14.5
+14.5TAB — talent above budget4th/30
+18.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)4th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars19th/30
-5.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag17th/30
33%dead money %18th/30
0.512win %14th/30
32.4roster fWAR15th/30
+80surplus $M (value vs cost)2nd/30
$38Mpayroll $M30th/30

Roster

CFCedric Mullins 150GRyan McKenna 21GAustin Hays 6G
LFAustin Hays 86GRyan McKenna 39GAnthony Santander 38G
RFAnthony Santander 84GAustin Hays 58GBrett Phillips 38G
SSJorge Mateo 149GRamón Urías 8GChris Owings 8G
2BRougned Odor 129GRamón Urías 21GTerrin Vavra 15G
3BRamón Urías 98GTyler Nevin 44GGunnar Henderson 24G
1BRyan Mountcastle 124GJesús Aguilar 63GTyler Nevin 8G
STARTERSDean Kremer 1.8WARJordan Lyles 1.5WARTyler Wells 1.0WARAustin Voth 1.0WARSpenser Watkins 0.9WAR
CAdley Rutschman 93GRobinson Chirinos 66GAnthony Bemboom 21G
DHJesús Aguilar 60GAnthony Santander 34GAdley Rutschman 23G
BULLPEN★ Félix Bautista 15svCionel Pérez 25hDillon Tate 16hJoey Krehbiel 10hBryan Baker 9hKeegan Akin 3hLouis Head 1hNick Vespi 1h
CAdley Rutschman 93 · Robinson Chirinos 66 · Anthony Bemboom 21
1BRyan Mountcastle 124 · Jesús Aguilar 63 · Tyler Nevin 8
2BRougned Odor 129 · Ramón Urías 21 · Terrin Vavra 15
3BRamón Urías 98 · Tyler Nevin 44 · Gunnar Henderson 24
SSJorge Mateo 149 · Ramón Urías 8 · Chris Owings 8
LFAustin Hays 86 · Ryan McKenna 39 · Anthony Santander 38
CFCedric Mullins 150 · Ryan McKenna 21 · Austin Hays 6
RFAnthony Santander 84 · Austin Hays 58 · Brett Phillips 38
DHJesús Aguilar 60 · Anthony Santander 34 · Adley Rutschman 23
SPDean Kremer 1.8 · Jordan Lyles 1.5 · Tyler Wells 1.0 · Austin Voth 1.0 · Spenser Watkins 0.9
BP★ Félix Bautista 15 · Cionel Pérez 25 · Dillon Tate 16 · Joey Krehbiel 10 · Bryan Baker 9 · Keegan Akin 3 · Louis Head 1 · Nick Vespi 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2022 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Adley Rutschman 24 – 1135.6 0.5 +20.0
Cedric Mullins 27 pre-arb 1563.7 0.7 +12.9
Jorge Mateo 27 pre-arb 1502.8 0.7 +9.4
Ramón Urías 28 pre-arb 1182.6 0.7 +8.9
Anthony Santander 27 arb 1522.3 3.1 +5.4
Austin Hays 26 pre-arb 1451.9 0.7 +6.1
Dean Kremer 26 pre-arb 221.8 0.7 +5.9
Ryan Mountcastle 25 pre-arb 1451.7 0.7 +5.6
Jordan Lyles 31 FA-elig 321.5 6.0 -0.5
Félix Bautista 27 – 651.4 0.7 +4.4
Bryan Baker 27 pre-arb 661.4 0.7 +4.3
Trey Mancini↔ HOU 30 FA-elig 921.2 4.8 -0.3
Austin Voth↔ WSN 30 arb 221.0 0.5 +3.4
Cionel Pérez 26 pre-arb 661.0 0.7 +2.9
Tyler Wells 27 pre-arb 231.0 0.7 +2.8
Spenser Watkins 29 pre-arb 230.9 0.6 +2.9
Jorge López↔ MIN 29 FA-elig 440.9 1.0 +2.4
Gunnar Henderson 21 – 340.8 0.1 +2.8
Kyle Bradish 25 – 230.8 0.6 +2.2
Ryan McKenna 25 pre-arb 1050.6 0.7 +1.5
Dillon Tate 28 pre-arb 670.5 0.7 +1.1
Keegan Akin 27 pre-arb 450.5 0.7 +1.1
DL Hall 23 – 110.4 0.1 +1.4
Mike Baumann 26 pre-arb 130.4 0.2 +1.1
John Means 29 arb 20.3 3.0 -1.7
Rougned Odor 28 FA-elig 1350.3 0.7 +0.4
Kyle Stowers 24 – 340.2 0.2 +0.5
Richie Martin Jr. 27 – 130.2 – –
Denyi Reyes 25 – 30.2 0.0 +0.5
Jake Reed↔ LAD 29 – 80.1 0.1 +0.4
Logan Gillaspie 25 – 170.1 0.2 +0.1
Marcos Diplán 25 pre-arb 50.1 0.1 +0.1
Terrin Vavra 25 – 400.1 0.3 -0.1
Cody Sedlock 27 – 10.0 0.0 +0.2
Yennier Cano↔ MIN 28 – 30.0 0.0 +0.1
Louis Head↔ MIA 32 pre-arb 50.0 0.1 -0.0
Logan Allen↔ CLE 25 – 3-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Beau Sulser↔ PIT 28 – 6-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Zac Lowther 26 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Yusniel Díaz 25 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Paul Fry↔ ARI 29 arb 12-0.0 0.8 -1.0
Alex Wells 25 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.6 -0.8
DJ Stewart 28 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Chris Ellis 29 arb 2-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Rico Garcia 28 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Brett Phillips↔ TBR 28 arb 8-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Nick Vespi 26 – 25-0.1 0.3 -0.8
Jonathan Araúz↔ BOS 23 pre-arb 9-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Rylan Bannon↔ ATL 26 – 4-0.2 0.0 -0.8
Anthony Bemboom 32 pre-arb 22-0.3 0.2 -1.2
Travis Lakins 28 pre-arb 6-0.3 0.3 -1.3
Jesús Aguilar↔ MIA 32 FA-elig 16-0.3 0.9 -1.9
Kelvin Gutiérrez 27 pre-arb 12-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Joey Krehbiel 29 pre-arb 56-0.3 0.7 -1.9
Tyler Nevin 25 pre-arb 58-0.5 0.5 -2.5
Chris Owings 30 FA-elig 27-0.6 0.7 -2.9
Bruce Zimmermann 27 pre-arb 15-0.8 0.3 -3.1
Robinson Chirinos 38 FA-elig 67-1.3 0.9 -5.8

Key additions (new vs 2021)

PlayerfWAR
Adley Rutschman5.6
Jordan Lyles1.5
Félix Bautista1.4
Bryan Baker1.4
Austin Voth1.0
Cionel Pérez1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2021)

Player2021 fWAR
Cole Sulser1.5
Freddy Galvis1.0
Tanner Scott0.4
Conner Greene0.4
César Valdez0.2
Fernando Abad0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2022 payroll
$38.2M
2023 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2022, 2022–2028. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2022; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (4)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Jordan Lyles3110.002$6.0MFREE AGENT
Robinson Chirinos389.102$900kFREE AGENT
Chris Owings309.000$700kFREE AGENT
Rougned Odor287.121$700kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Trey Mancini305.015$4.8MFREE AGENT
Anthony Santander273.162$3.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Means293.007$3.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge López293.102$985kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesús Aguilar325.082$905kFREE AGENT
Paul Fry293.075$785kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Phillips283.012$135kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richie Martin Jr.273.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (46)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Cedric Mullins272.078$716kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Hays262.057$713kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dillon Tate282.048$712kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Mountcastle251.105$711kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Mateo272.000$710kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dean Kremer260.112$706kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramón Urías281.025$706kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cionel Pérez261.079$705kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Wells271.000$704kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keegan Akin271.083$702kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Baker270.008$700kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Félix Bautista270.000$700kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Krehbiel290.014$674kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan McKenna250.137$669kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Bradish250.000$615kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Wells250.055$577kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spenser Watkins290.096$558kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adley Rutschman240.000$527kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Voth302.127$470kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Nevin250.011$465kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Lakins282.039$285kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bruce Zimmermann271.031$283kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Vespi260.000$273kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Terrin Vavra250.000$273kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Baumann260.027$223kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Bemboom321.081$210kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Stowers240.000$196kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Gillaspie250.000$173kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Araúz231.060$140kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
DL Hall230.000$138kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gunnar Henderson210.000$135kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kelvin Gutiérrez271.157$116kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rico Garcia280.123$115kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marcos Diplán251.000$100kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Ellis290.062$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Louis Head320.074$98kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Beau Sulser28–$65k
Jake Reed290.051$55kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Allen25–$47k
Yennier Cano280.000$31kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rylan Bannon260.000$28kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
DJ Stewart282.065$27kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Denyi Reyes250.000$27kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Sedlock27–$12k
Yusniel Díaz25–$12k
Zac Lowther260.043$4kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2022; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.