BAL⇄BOS

BALBAL Mike Elias net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $55M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.5 ± 7 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Harold RivasOF·18y·R/R

+$6.1M+$6.1M± $55M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.5± 7 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

MLB Pipeline intl top-50 #32 signee (2025) → 0.29/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.88 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Craig Breslow net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± band is the uncertainty — wide for unproven prospects, tight for established veterans. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.