RRosternomics
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Orioles BAL

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GM: Mike Elias

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.21× league · TAB -0.9
-0.9TAB — talent above budget15th/30
-9.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)24th/30
2.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars29th/30
-10.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag28th/30
54%dead money %26th/30
0.321win %29th/30
14.0roster fWAR28th/30
+24surplus $M (value vs cost)5th/30
$26Mpayroll $M30th/30

Roster

CFCedric Mullins 153GRyan McKenna 18GAustin Hays 6G
LFAustin Hays 88GRyan McKenna 50GDJ Stewart 39G
RFAnthony Santander 81GAustin Hays 54GDJ Stewart 33G
SSRamón Urías 48GRichie Martin Jr. 37GJorge Mateo 18G
2BPat Valaika 72GRamón Urías 32GStevie Wilkerson 26G
3BMaikel Franco 99GKelvin Gutiérrez 84GDomingo Leyba 10G
1BRyan Mountcastle 84GTrey Mancini 77GPat Valaika 6G
STARTERSJohn Means 2.5WARMatt Harvey 1.8WARJorge López 0.8WARKeegan Akin 0.6WARBruce Zimmermann 0.4WAR
CPedro Severino 109GAustin Wynns 44GNick Ciuffo 2G
DHTrey Mancini 68GRyan Mountcastle 41GAnthony Santander 21G
BULLPEN★ César Valdez 8svTanner Scott 16hPaul Fry 11hDillon Tate 8hCole Sulser 6hAdam Plutko 5hTyler Wells 1hConner Greene 1h
CPedro Severino 109 · Austin Wynns 44 · Nick Ciuffo 2
1BRyan Mountcastle 84 · Trey Mancini 77 · Pat Valaika 6
2BPat Valaika 72 · Ramón Urías 32 · Stevie Wilkerson 26
3BMaikel Franco 99 · Kelvin Gutiérrez 84 · Domingo Leyba 10
SSRamón Urías 48 · Richie Martin Jr. 37 · Jorge Mateo 18
LFAustin Hays 88 · Ryan McKenna 50 · DJ Stewart 39
CFCedric Mullins 153 · Ryan McKenna 18 · Austin Hays 6
RFAnthony Santander 81 · Austin Hays 54 · DJ Stewart 33
DHTrey Mancini 68 · Ryan Mountcastle 41 · Anthony Santander 21
SPJohn Means 2.5 · Matt Harvey 1.8 · Jorge López 0.8 · Keegan Akin 0.6 · Bruce Zimmermann 0.4
BP★ César Valdez 8 · Tanner Scott 16 · Paul Fry 11 · Dillon Tate 8 · Cole Sulser 6 · Adam Plutko 5 · Tyler Wells 1 · Conner Greene 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2021 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Cedric Mullins 26 pre-arb 1596.0 0.6 +19.0
John Means 28 pre-arb 262.5 0.6 +7.6
Austin Hays 25 pre-arb 1311.9 0.6 +5.5
Matt Harvey 32 FA-elig 281.8 1.0 +4.8
Cole Sulser 31 pre-arb 601.5 0.5 +4.2
Ramón Urías 27 pre-arb 851.1 0.5 +3.0
Freddy Galvis↔ PHI 31 FA-elig 721.0 1.0 +2.2
Trey Mancini 29 arb 1470.9 4.8 -1.7
Tyler Wells 26 – 440.9 0.6 +2.5
Ryan Mountcastle 24 pre-arb 1440.8 0.6 +2.1
Jorge López 28 pre-arb 330.8 0.6 +1.9
Kelvin Gutiérrez↔ KCR 26 pre-arb 470.7 0.1 +2.3
Paul Fry 28 pre-arb 520.6 0.5 +1.6
Keegan Akin 26 pre-arb 240.6 0.4 +1.5
Dillon Tate 27 pre-arb 620.4 0.6 +0.8
Tanner Scott 26 pre-arb 620.4 0.6 +0.6
Conner Greene↔ LAD 26 – 220.4 0.1 +1.1
Bruce Zimmermann 26 pre-arb 140.4 0.5 +0.6
Chris Ellis↔ TBR 28 pre-arb 70.3 0.1 +0.8
Jorge Mateo↔ SDP 26 pre-arb 320.2 0.1 +0.7
César Valdez 36 pre-arb 390.2 0.4 +0.3
Fernando Abad 35 FA-elig 160.1 0.2 +0.3
Zac Lowther 25 – 100.1 0.1 +0.2
Dusten Knight 30 – 70.1 0.1 +0.2
Hunter Harvey 26 pre-arb 90.1 0.6 -0.3
Wade LeBlanc↔ STL 36 FA-elig 60.1 0.2 +0.0
DJ Stewart 27 pre-arb 1000.1 0.6 -0.3
Ryan McKenna 24 – 900.1 0.4 -0.2
Tyler Nevin 24 – 60.0 0.0 +0.1
Zack Burdi↔ CHW 26 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Jay Flaa↔ ATL 29 – 10.0 0.0 -0.0
Brandon Waddell↔ MIN 27 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Nick Ciuffo 26 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Isaac Mattson 25 – 4-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Joey Krehbiel↔ TBR 28 arb 5-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Konner Wade 29 – 7-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Travis Lakins 27 pre-arb 24-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Eric Hanhold 27 pre-arb 10-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Spenser Watkins 28 – 16-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Alex Wells 24 – 11-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Brooks Kriske↔ NYY 27 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Shawn Armstrong↔ TBR 30 FA-elig 20-0.1 0.5 -0.9
Thomas Eshelman 27 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Manny Barreda 32 – 3-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Shaun Anderson↔ MIN 26 – 7-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Anthony Santander 26 arb 110-0.2 2.1 -2.6
Rio Ruiz↔ COL 27 – 32-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Marcos Diplán 24 – 23-0.2 0.2 -0.7
Mickey Jannis 33 – 1-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Mike Baumann 25 – 4-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Dean Kremer 25 pre-arb 13-0.3 0.2 -1.3
Mac Sceroler 26 – 5-0.4 0.3 -1.4
Domingo Leyba↔ ARI 25 – 21-0.5 0.1 -1.6
Chance Sisco↔ NYM 26 – 23-0.6 0.2 -2.1
Maikel Franco 28 FA-elig 104-0.6 0.8 -2.8
Pedro Severino 27 FA-elig 113-0.7 1.8 -4.0
Austin Wynns 30 pre-arb 45-0.7 0.4 -2.7
Richie Martin Jr. 26 – 37-0.7 – –
Stevie Wilkerson 29 – 31-0.8 – –
Jahmai Jones 23 pre-arb 26-0.8 0.1 -2.8
Pat Valaika 28 arb 91-0.8 0.9 -3.6
Adam Plutko 29 pre-arb 38-1.2 0.4 -4.3

Key additions (new vs 2020)

PlayerfWAR
Matt Harvey1.8
Freddy Galvis1.0
Trey Mancini0.9
Tyler Wells0.9
Kelvin Gutiérrez0.7
Conner Greene0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2020)

Player2020 fWAR
Jose Iglesias1.6
Tommy Milone0.7
Mychal Givens0.4
Hanser Alberto0.4
Miguel Castro0.3
Renato Núñez0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2021 payroll
$26.4M
2022 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2021, 2021–2027. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2021; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Freddy Galvis318.021$1.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Harvey327.127$1.0MFREE AGENT
Maikel Franco287.000$800kFREE AGENT
Wade LeBlanc367.131$233kFREE AGENT
Fernando Abad356.119$150kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Trey Mancini294.015$4.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Severino273.099$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Valaika283.079$875kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Armstrong303.028$532kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan McKenna243.123$386kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (52)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Anthony Santander262.162$2.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Means282.007$594kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge López282.102$587kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Scott262.059$580kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Hays251.057$578kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
DJ Stewart271.065$577kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cedric Mullins261.075$577kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dillon Tate271.048$574kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Mountcastle240.105$574kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Harvey261.047$574kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Wells260.000$570kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Sulser311.028$537kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bruce Zimmermann260.031$532kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Lakins271.054$475kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Fry282.096$475kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramón Urías270.047$455kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keegan Akin260.108$448kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
César Valdez361.060$443kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Plutko292.063$430kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Wynns301.016$383kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mac Sceroler26–$255k
Spenser Watkins280.000$239kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dean Kremer250.053$182kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marcos Diplán240.000$178kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thomas Eshelman271.028$175kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Wells240.000$163kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chance Sisco262.103$156kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Mateo261.000$138kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Ellis280.001$118kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zac Lowther250.000$117kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Conner Greene262.064$115kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jahmai Jones230.014$110kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kelvin Gutiérrez261.046$93kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Krehbiel280.003$83kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rio Ruiz272.109$81kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Konner Wade29–$74k
Domingo Leyba251.042$70kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Hanhold270.044$64kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dusten Knight300.000$58kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Baumann250.000$52kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Isaac Mattson250.000$52kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brooks Kriske270.044$46kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shaun Anderson261.091$44kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Nevin240.000$31kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Ciuffo260.034$28kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manny Barreda32–$15k
Brandon Waddell270.067$14kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jay Flaa29–$12k
Mickey Jannis33–$9k
Zack Burdi260.083$9kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stevie Wilkerson29–—
Richie Martin Jr.262.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2021; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.