RRosternomics
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Orioles BAL

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GM: Mike Elias

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.91× league · TAB -9.1
-9.1TAB — talent above budget28th/30
-5.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)24th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars21st/30
-8.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag26th/30
72%dead money %29th/30
0.463win %24th/30
24.0roster fWAR26th/30
-45surplus $M (value vs cost)21st/30
$140Mpayroll $M16th/30

Roster

CFColton Cowser 47GDylan Carlson 14GJorge Mateo 10G
LFDylan Carlson 53GColton Cowser 43GHeston Kjerstad 29G
RFTyler O'Neill 36GJeremiah Jackson 34GHeston Kjerstad 24G
SSGunnar Henderson 145GLuis Vázquez 11GJorge Mateo 11G
2BJackson Holliday 139GJordan Westburg 17GJorge Mateo 6G
3BJordan Westburg 52GEmmanuel Rivera 30GJeremiah Jackson 13G
1BCoby Mayo 70GRyan Mountcastle 56GEmmanuel Rivera 8G
STARTERSTrevor Rogers 3.3WARDean Kremer 2.6WARCade Povich 1.4WARKyle Bradish 1.1WARTomoyuki Sugano 0.1WAR
CAdley Rutschman 73GJacob Stallings 40GAlex Jackson 35G
DHRyan Mountcastle 33GAdley Rutschman 18GJordan Westburg 16G
BULLPEN★ Félix Bautista 19svYennier Cano 17hKeegan Akin 16hRico Garcia 10hShawn Dubin 8hKade Strowd 5hJosé Castillo 3hScott Blewett 0h
CAdley Rutschman 73 · Jacob Stallings 40 · Alex Jackson 35
1BCoby Mayo 70 · Ryan Mountcastle 56 · Emmanuel Rivera 8
2BJackson Holliday 139 · Jordan Westburg 17 · Jorge Mateo 6
3BJordan Westburg 52 · Emmanuel Rivera 30 · Jeremiah Jackson 13
SSGunnar Henderson 145 · Luis Vázquez 11 · Jorge Mateo 11
LFDylan Carlson 53 · Colton Cowser 43 · Heston Kjerstad 29
CFColton Cowser 47 · Dylan Carlson 14 · Jorge Mateo 10
RFTyler O'Neill 36 · Jeremiah Jackson 34 · Heston Kjerstad 24
DHRyan Mountcastle 33 · Adley Rutschman 18 · Jordan Westburg 16
SPTrevor Rogers 3.3 · Dean Kremer 2.6 · Cade Povich 1.4 · Kyle Bradish 1.1 · Tomoyuki Sugano 0.1
BP★ Félix Bautista 19 · Yennier Cano 17 · Keegan Akin 16 · Rico Garcia 10 · Shawn Dubin 8 · Kade Strowd 5 · José Castillo 3 · Scott Blewett 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2025 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Gunnar Henderson 24 pre-arb 1544.8 0.8 +18.2
Trevor Rogers 27 arb 183.3 2.1 +11.0
Dean Kremer 29 arb 312.6 3.0 +7.2
Ryan O'Hearn↔ SDP 31 – 942.4 5.1 +4.6
Ramón Laureano↔ SDP 30 – 822.3 2.3 +6.7
Jordan Westburg 26 pre-arb 851.9 0.8 +6.7
Cade Povich 25 pre-arb 221.4 0.8 +4.7
Jackson Holliday 21 pre-arb 1491.2 0.8 +4.1
Adley Rutschman 27 arb 901.2 5.5 -0.9
Kyle Bradish 28 pre-arb 61.1 2.4 +2.1
Cedric Mullins↔ NYM 30 – 911.1 4.1 +0.4
Alex Jackson 29 pre-arb 371.0 0.3 +3.8
Ramón Urías↔ HOU 31 – 770.9 1.8 +1.7
Jeremiah Jackson 25 – 480.8 0.2 +2.9
Dylan Beavers 23 – 350.7 0.2 +2.5
Colton Cowser 25 pre-arb 920.7 0.8 +1.8
Félix Bautista 30 arb 350.6 1.0 +1.4
Seranthony Domínguez↔ TOR 30 – 430.6 4.6 -2.4
Gregory Soto↔ NYM 30 – 450.5 2.2 -0.2
Dietrich Enns↔ DET 34 pre-arb 170.4 0.2 +1.3
Albert Suárez 35 pre-arb 50.3 0.8 +0.5
Tyler Wells 30 arb 40.3 2.1 -0.8
Charlie Morton↔ ATL 41 – 230.3 9.1 -8.0
Andrew Kittredge↔ CHC 35 – 310.2 3.5 -2.6
Coby Mayo 23 pre-arb 850.2 0.5 +0.4
Bryan Baker↔ TBR 30 – 420.2 0.3 +0.7
Kade Strowd 27 – 250.2 0.3 +0.6
Grant Wolfram 28 – 210.2 0.4 +0.5
Shawn Dubin↔ HOU 29 pre-arb 70.1 0.1 +0.3
Jose Espada 28 pre-arb 10.1 0.0 +0.3
Colin Selby 27 pre-arb 110.1 0.4 -0.0
Yennier Cano 31 pre-arb 650.1 0.8 -0.5
Tomoyuki Sugano 35 – 300.1 13.0 -12.8
Vidal Bruján↔ ATL 27 – 10.1 0.0 +0.2
Rico Garcia↔ NYM 31 pre-arb 200.0 0.2 -0.0
Roansy Contreras↔ COL 25 – 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Chadwick Tromp↔ ATL 30 pre-arb 60.0 0.1 +0.0
Vimael Machín 31 pre-arb 40.0 0.0 +0.1
José Castillo↔ ARI 29 arb 50.0 0.0 -0.0
David Bañuelos 28 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Yaramil Hiraldo 29 – 18-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Cody Poteet 30 – 1-0.0 0.6 -0.6
Matt Bowman 34 – 20-0.0 1.1 -1.1
Terrin Vavra 28 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Carson Ragsdale 27 – 2-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Cooper Hummel↔ HOU 30 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Brandon Young 26 – 12-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Ryan Noda↔ CHW 29 pre-arb 7-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Jordyn Adams 25 pre-arb 10-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Daniel Johnson↔ SFG 29 pre-arb 17-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Elvin Rodríguez↔ MIL 27 – 1-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Scott Blewett↔ ATL 29 pre-arb 13-0.1 0.2 -0.7
Corbin Martin 29 pre-arb 17-0.2 0.3 -1.1
Gary Sánchez 32 FA-elig 30-0.2 8.5 -9.4
Luis Vázquez 25 pre-arb 36-0.2 0.4 -1.3
Cionel Pérez 29 arb 19-0.2 2.2 -3.1
Samuel Basallo 20 – 31-0.3 0.2 -1.2
Zach Eflin 31 FA-elig 14-0.3 18.0 -19.0
Greg Allen 32 arb 7-0.3 0.1 -1.4
Tyler O'Neill 30 FA-elig 54-0.3 16.5 -17.9
Dylan Carlson 26 arb 83-0.4 1.0 -2.4
Ryan Mountcastle 28 arb 89-0.4 6.8 -8.3
Chayce McDermott 26 pre-arb 4-0.4 0.2 -1.7
Emmanuel Rivera 29 arb 43-0.4 1.0 -2.5
Jacob Stallings↔ COL 35 FA-elig 14-0.4 0.8 -2.3
Keegan Akin 30 arb 64-0.5 1.5 -3.6
Maverick Handley 27 – 16-0.6 0.4 -2.8
Jorge Mateo 30 arb 43-0.6 3.5 -6.0
Kyle Gibson 37 – 4-0.6 5.2 -7.8
Heston Kjerstad 26 pre-arb 54-1.1 0.3 -4.8

Key additions (new vs 2024)

PlayerfWAR
Ramón Laureano2.3
Alex Jackson1.0
Jeremiah Jackson0.8
Dylan Beavers0.7
Félix Bautista0.6
Dietrich Enns0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2024)

Player2024 fWAR
Corbin Burnes3.8
Anthony Santander3.2
Jacob Webb0.7
Cole Irvin0.6
Danny Coulombe0.5
John Means0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2025 payroll
$140.3M
2026 guaranteed
$32.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2025, 2025–2031. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2025; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Zach Eflin318.018$18.0MFREE AGENT
Tyler O'Neill306.059$16.5M$16.5MOPT-OUT$16.5MFREE AGENT
Charlie Morton4116.010$9.1MFREE AGENT
Gary Sánchez328.050$8.5MFREE AGENT
Kyle Gibson3711.039$5.2MFREE AGENT
Ryan O'Hearn316.002$5.1MCLUBFREE AGENT
Seranthony Domínguez306.131$4.6MCLUBFREE AGENT
Andrew Kittredge356.070$3.5M$9.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Ramón Laureano305.159$2.3M$6.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Jacob Stallings356.149$777kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Ryan Mountcastle284.105$6.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Adley Rutschman273.000$5.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cedric Mullins305.078$4.1MFREE AGENT
Jorge Mateo305.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Dean Kremer293.112$3.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gregory Soto305.102$2.2MFREE AGENT
Cionel Pérez294.085$2.2MCLUBARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Rogers274.069$2.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Wells303.132$2.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramón Urías314.025$1.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Keegan Akin304.083$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Bowman345.043$1.1MFREE AGENT
Dylan Carlson264.104$1.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Emmanuel Rivera293.026$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Félix Bautista303.000$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Allen323.127$65kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Castillo294.011$48kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (43)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Tomoyuki Sugano350.000$13.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Bradish282.160$2.4MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Albert Suárez352.019$825kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gunnar Henderson242.036$782kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colton Cowser251.043$774kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Westburg261.098$773kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jackson Holliday210.078$765kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cade Povich250.080$758kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yennier Cano312.065$752kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Poteet302.145$583kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Coby Mayo230.043$519kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Maverick Handley270.000$441kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Vázquez250.047$417kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colin Selby270.066$388kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Young260.000$388kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Grant Wolfram280.000$353kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Jackson292.123$347kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Heston Kjerstad260.137$312kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kade Strowd270.000$302kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corbin Martin292.081$264kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Baker302.049$252kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremiah Jackson250.000$249kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Blewett290.102$240kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chayce McDermott260.001$225kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yaramil Hiraldo290.000$215kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rico Garcia311.042$184kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Beavers230.000$180kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dietrich Enns340.059$180kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Samuel Basallo200.000$176kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Dubin290.156$147kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chadwick Tromp302.066$127kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordyn Adams250.066$82kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Johnson290.123$69kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elvin Rodríguez270.031$68kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Noda291.080$61kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carson Ragsdale27–$52k
Jose Espada280.010$41kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Terrin Vavra280.147$37kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vimael Machín311.141$33kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roansy Contreras252.039$22kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vidal Bruján272.014$9kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cooper Hummel301.003$7kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Bañuelos280.013$4kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2025; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.