Rosternomics
Log in Sign up 𝕏
← Trade Database
January 26, 2023

BAL⇄OAK

unsettledToo soon to call — players still accruing.
BALBAL Mike Elias net +$13.6M net +1.8
received +$26.4M+$26.4M ± $42M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 4.8 ± 5 expected · 1.1 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2023 odds 55% → 58% (+3.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Cole IrvinP·29y·L/L
+$24.0M+$24.0M± $35M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 3.5± 4 exp WARrealized 1.1
Prior
#137 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 1.5/yr over 1.8 season
Talent
0.98/yr blended
Horizon
4.0 control yrs × 0.89 age decline
Kyle VirbitskyP·24y·R/R
+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
#518 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
6.0 control yrs
OAKOAK David Forst net −$13.6M net -1.8
received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · -0.7 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2023 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Darell Hernaiz3B/SS·21y·R/R
+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.7
Prior
#138 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Fan verdict — who overpaid?

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

Rosternomics — front-office performance, roster value, and transaction history. Follow @rosternomics on X.
Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
Privacy Policy · Terms of Service · © 2026 Rosternomics