HOU⇄BAL

HOUHOU Dana Brown net +$0.0M net +0.2

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $14M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.9 ± 2 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2025 odds 33% → 34% (+1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ramón Urías3B·31y·R/R

+$5.0M+$5.0M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.9± 2 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.04/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Mike Elias net +$0.0M net -0.2

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2025 odds 2% → 2% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Twine PalmerP·20y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#583 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.