RRosternomics
𝕏
DW

Dick Williams

Born 1971 · age 55

President of baseball operations for the Reds (2016–2021).

5 seasons with salary-era data across 2 stints. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs1
Record324–384
Win %0.458
-3.4GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±6.1158th/195 execs
5.0Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)145th/195 execs
-5.9Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)137th/195 execs
42%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)142nd/195 execs
$28MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track51st/195 execs
$11MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)60th/195 execs
$20MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade15th/195 execs
$-0MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees173rd/195 execs
-22.1TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total146th/195 execs
-25.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)158th/195 execs
1.60Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)105th/195 execs
-108Roster surplus $M133rd/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
▸ Reds POBO 2018–2021 3 -16.4 -5.47 -5.0 -14.7 +7.7 -2.1 -40.0 +0.4 1.82 0.469 1–– -61
▸ Reds GM 2016–2016 1 -9.4 -9.36 -17.1 -14.4 +7.1 +0.7 -2.3 -0.9 0.05 0.420 ––– -47
Career total (1985+ data) 5 -25.8 -22.1 -29.1 +14.9 -1.4 -42.3 -0.6 1.60 0.458 1– – -108

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

by valueby volume

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+14.9
Trade-1.4
Free agency-42.3
Rule 5 / minor draft-0.6
Sourcing mix: 55% draft · 45% FA · 0% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Dick Williams's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 80 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Sonny Gray P CIN Trade 2019 3 +8.7 +2.9 2.2
Jonathan India 2B CIN Draft 2018 4 +8.1 +2.0 –
TJ Friedl OF CIN Intl FA 2016 5 +7.6 +1.5 –
Nick Castellanos 3B/OF CIN Free agency 2020 2 +4.0 +2.0 5.7
Kyle Farmer 2B/SS CIN Free agency 2020 4 +3.9 +1.0 0.1
José Peraza 2B/SS CIN Trade 2016 2 +3.9 +2.0 0.1
Wade Miley P CIN Free agency 2019 2 +3.4 +1.7 2.4
Trevor Bauer P CIN Trade 2019 2 +3.3 +1.7 0.5
Scott Schebler OF CIN Trade 2016 3 +2.6 +0.9 0.0
Lucas Sims P CIN Trade 2019 4 +2.6 +0.6 0.2
Tanner Roark P CIN Trade 2019 1 +2.0 +2.0 1.1
Jose Iglesias SS CIN Free agency 2019 1 +1.8 +1.8 1.0
David Hernandez P CIN Free agency 2018 2 +1.5 +0.7 0.2
Tyler Naquin OF CIN Free agency 2021 2 +1.4 +0.7 4.7
Matt Harvey P CIN Trade 2018 1 +1.4 +1.4 0.3
Jared Hughes P CIN Trade 2018 1 +1.3 +1.3 0.3
Curt Casali C CIN Trade 2018 3 +1.3 +0.4 0.0
Yasiel Puig OF CIN Trade 2019 1 +1.2 +1.2 0.7
Blake Wood P CIN Trade 2016 2 +1.0 +0.5 0.0
Derek Dietrich 2B/OF CIN Free agency 2019 1 +0.6 +0.6 0.4
Dan Straily P CIN Trade 2016 1 +0.6 +0.6 0.0
Justin Wilson P CIN Trade 2021 3 +0.5 +0.2 0.6
Jeff Hoffman P CIN Trade 2020 2 +0.4 +0.2 0.6
Dylan Floro P CIN Trade 2018 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.1
Kevin Gausman P CIN Trade 2019 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.2
Joel Kuhnel P CIN Draft 2016 2 +0.3 +0.1 –
Reiver Sanmartin P CIN Trade 2019 2 +0.3 +0.2 –
Sean Doolittle P CIN Trade 2021 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.9
Freddy Galvis SS CIN Trade 2019 2 +0.3 +0.1 0.1
Art Warren P CIN Trade 2021 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.8
Matthew Bowman P CIN Trade 2019 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.2
Vladimir Gutiérrez P CIN Intl FA 2016 1 +0.2 +0.2 –
Luis Cessa P CIN Trade 2021 3 +0.2 +0.1 1.8
Ryan Lavarnway C CIN Free agency 2019 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.1
Tyler Thornburg P CIN Free agency 2019 1 +0.2 +0.2 3.2
Hernán Iribarren 2B/OF CIN Trade 2016 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.0
Brandon Finnegan P CIN Trade 2016 2 +0.2 +0.1 0.0
Delino DeShields OF CIN Trade 2021 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.7
Heath Hembree P CIN Trade 2021 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.7
Mason Williams OF CIN Trade 2018 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.0
Kyle Crockett P CIN Trade 2018 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.1
Josh VanMeter 2B CIN Trade 2016 1 +0.1 +0.1 –
José De León P CIN Trade 2019 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.6
Tim Federowicz C CIN Trade 2018 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Mychal Givens P CIN Trade 2021 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.5
Archie Bradley P CIN Trade 2020 1 +0.1 +0.1 2.5
Matt Wisler P CIN Trade 2018 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Jesse Biddle P CIN Free agency 2020 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Kyle Dowdy P CIN Free agency 2021 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Brooks Raley P CIN Trade 2020 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.6
Carson Fulmer P CIN Trade 2021 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Steve Delabar P CIN Free agency 2016 – -0.1 – –
Gabriel Guerrero OF CIN Trade 2016 – -0.1 – –
R. J. Alaniz P CIN Free agency 2020 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2
Brad Brach P CIN Free agency 2021 – -0.1 – –
Nate Jones P CIN Free agency 2020 – -0.1 – –
Michael Mariot P CIN Free agency 2021 – -0.1 – –
Pedro Strop P CIN Free agency 2020 – -0.1 – –
Tim Adleman P CIN Trade 2016 1 -0.2 -0.2 –
Rafael Lopez C CIN Free agency 2016 – -0.2 – –
A. J. Morris P CIN Trade 2016 – -0.2 – –
Christian Colón 2B/3B CIN Free agency 2018 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1
Aramis Garcia C CIN Free agency 2021 – -0.2 – –
Riley O'Brien P CIN Trade 2020 – -0.2 – –
Max Schrock OF CIN Trade 2021 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.6
Dayán Díaz P CIN Trade 2016 – -0.3 – –
Matt Davidson 3B/DH CIN Free agency 2020 – -0.3 – –
Mike Moustakas 3B CIN Free agency 2019 1 -0.3 -0.3 10.2
Cliff Pennington 2B/SS CIN Free agency 2018 – -0.3 – –
Ryan Hendrix P CIN Draft 2016 1 -0.4 -0.4 –
Shogo Akiyama OF CIN Draft 2020 1 -0.4 -0.4 –
Josh Osich P CIN Free agency 2020 – -0.4 – –
Mark Payton OF CIN Trade 2020 – -0.4 – –
Tim Melville P CIN Trade 2016 – -0.5 – –
Ross Ohlendorf P CIN Free agency 2016 – -0.5 – –
Nick Senzel OF CIN Draft 2016 1 -0.5 -0.5 –
Matt Kemp OF CIN Trade 2018 – -0.6 – –
Jordan Pacheco 1B/3B CIN Free agency 2016 – -0.7 – –
Stuart Turner C CIN Rule 5 2016 – -0.9 – –
Alfredo Simón P CIN Free agency 2016 3 -1.0 -0.3 2.7

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

drag to zoom · double-click to reset
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.